Gale Warning 772, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 022354
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-031500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES TO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. A SECONDARY WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
$$

PKZ351-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 031239
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-040300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 040001
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF WED NIGHT AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE EARLY THU MORNING. A 
995 MB LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AT 59N 149W WED NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE NEAR 60N 146W THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-041500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-041500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 041233
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-050300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 58N 150W WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB AT 60N 147W THU
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THU EVENING. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-050300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-050300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ON SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE
FEATURES WERE REASONABLE. THE NGM 850 MB TEMPS INITIALIZED ABOUT 2C
TOO WARM. MODEL FORECAST TRENDS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
REASONABLE. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST THE GFS MOVES THE
EAST ALEUTIAN/WEST AK PEN FRONTAL WAVE WED. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE
FURTHER WEST WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND IS IN KEEPING WITH THE
CURRENT PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT
THE ECMWF POSITION.

.UPPER LEVELS (500 MB)...THE PATTERN SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
WED AS GENERALLY CUT-OFF LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND RIDGE
OVER THE GULF HOLD UNDERGO LITTLE MOVEMENT. BY FRI THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE LOW CENTER MOVED TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THIS TIME THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE EVIDENT EXTENDING NORTH ALONG 160E FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
DRAINAGE/GAP WINDS AND ALLOW FROM COLD TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO CANADA TUE/WED AND ALLOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMPLEX NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TO SPREAD INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...
ALEUTIANS/AK PEN/BERING SEA...LOW COMPLEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE VERY WIND CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER SAINT PAUL ISLAND SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SNOW WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIMINISHES. CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP
AS TEMPS WARM WED AND THU. WIND WARNING CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW CENTER SOUTH OF ADAK
DRIFTS SW AND WEAKENS. WARNING LEVEL WINDS MAY DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AS
NEXT WAVE REPLACES THIS CENTER AND FRONTAL TROUGH ARCHES NW. WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED AT WARNING LEVELS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN.

.SW MAINLAND...SAT PICTURE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD MOVING INTO THE SW
MAINLAND IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND AS CLOUDS THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED IN BRISTOL BAY TUE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY MIXED ON THE DELTA WED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN FROZEN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AT LEAST THROUGH WED. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THU AND FRI...SO MAY SEE
MIXED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM AND DELTA AND RAIN BRISTOL BAY DURING THESE
TIME FRAMES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195. HIGH WIND WARNINGS 185 AND 191
DIMINISHING.
MARINE...STORMS 175 176.
         GALES  129 130 138 140 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 08