Gale Warning 771, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 030000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 MB LOW NEAR 46N 171W WEAKENS TO 975 MB NEAR 51N 168W THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A 978 MB LOW NEAR 51N 159W LATE TONIGHT MOVES TO 56N 174W
AT 976 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ON SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE
FEATURES WERE REASONABLE. THE NGM 850 MB TEMPS INITIALIZED ABOUT 2C
TOO WARM. MODEL FORECAST TRENDS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
REASONABLE. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST THE GFS MOVES THE
EAST ALEUTIAN/WEST AK PEN FRONTAL WAVE WED. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE
FURTHER WEST WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND IS IN KEEPING WITH THE
CURRENT PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT
THE ECMWF POSITION.

.UPPER LEVELS (500 MB)...THE PATTERN SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
WED AS GENERALLY CUT-OFF LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND RIDGE
OVER THE GULF HOLD UNDERGO LITTLE MOVEMENT. BY FRI THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE LOW CENTER MOVED TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THIS TIME THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE EVIDENT EXTENDING NORTH ALONG 160E FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
DRAINAGE/GAP WINDS AND ALLOW FROM COLD TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO CANADA TUE/WED AND ALLOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMPLEX NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TO SPREAD INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...
ALEUTIANS/AK PEN/BERING SEA...LOW COMPLEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE VERY WIND CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER SAINT PAUL ISLAND SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SNOW WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIMINISHES. CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP
AS TEMPS WARM WED AND THU. WIND WARNING CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW CENTER SOUTH OF ADAK
DRIFTS SW AND WEAKENS. WARNING LEVEL WINDS MAY DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AS
NEXT WAVE REPLACES THIS CENTER AND FRONTAL TROUGH ARCHES NW. WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED AT WARNING LEVELS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN.

.SW MAINLAND...SAT PICTURE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD MOVING INTO THE SW
MAINLAND IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND AS CLOUDS THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED IN BRISTOL BAY TUE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY MIXED ON THE DELTA WED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN FROZEN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AT LEAST THROUGH WED. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THU AND FRI...SO MAY SEE
MIXED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM AND DELTA AND RAIN BRISTOL BAY DURING THESE
TIME FRAMES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195. HIGH WIND WARNINGS 185 AND 191
DIMINISHING.
MARINE...STORMS 175 176.
         GALES  129 130 138 140 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 08