Gale Warning 801, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ON SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE
FEATURES WERE REASONABLE. THE NGM 850 MB TEMPS INITIALIZED ABOUT 2C
TOO WARM. MODEL FORECAST TRENDS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
REASONABLE. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST THE GFS MOVES THE
EAST ALEUTIAN/WEST AK PEN FRONTAL WAVE WED. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE
FURTHER WEST WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND IS IN KEEPING WITH THE
CURRENT PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT
THE ECMWF POSITION.

.UPPER LEVELS (500 MB)...THE PATTERN SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
WED AS GENERALLY CUT-OFF LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND RIDGE
OVER THE GULF HOLD UNDERGO LITTLE MOVEMENT. BY FRI THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE LOW CENTER MOVED TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THIS TIME THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE EVIDENT EXTENDING NORTH ALONG 160E FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
DRAINAGE/GAP WINDS AND ALLOW FROM COLD TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO CANADA TUE/WED AND ALLOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMPLEX NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TO SPREAD INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...
ALEUTIANS/AK PEN/BERING SEA...LOW COMPLEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE VERY WIND CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER SAINT PAUL ISLAND SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SNOW WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIMINISHES. CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP
AS TEMPS WARM WED AND THU. WIND WARNING CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW CENTER SOUTH OF ADAK
DRIFTS SW AND WEAKENS. WARNING LEVEL WINDS MAY DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AS
NEXT WAVE REPLACES THIS CENTER AND FRONTAL TROUGH ARCHES NW. WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED AT WARNING LEVELS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN.

.SW MAINLAND...SAT PICTURE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD MOVING INTO THE SW
MAINLAND IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND AS CLOUDS THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED IN BRISTOL BAY TUE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY MIXED ON THE DELTA WED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN FROZEN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AT LEAST THROUGH WED. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THU AND FRI...SO MAY SEE
MIXED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM AND DELTA AND RAIN BRISTOL BAY DURING THESE
TIME FRAMES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195. HIGH WIND WARNINGS 185 AND 191
DIMINISHING.
MARINE...STORMS 175 176.
         GALES  129 130 138 140 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 08