Storm Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 010628 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
925 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

UPDATED ZONES 120 125 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 965 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 150 NM 
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 970 MB WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
925 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT BY MORNING. 
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
925 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
925 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
900 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
900 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 30 FT SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
900 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
900 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 011249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A STORM FORCE 965 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL
MOVE TO 370 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 969 MB BY LATE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
TO 979 MB NEAR GUSTAVUS BY LATE WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-020300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 35 FT SUBSIDING TO 26 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 21 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...HIGHER SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E TO NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
30 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. WINDS BECOMING NE 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 30 FT SUBSIDING TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-020300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-020300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 020009
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 965 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 80 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT AND WEAKEN TO 978 MB THU. A 978 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 75 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WED NIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THU.
$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON DEC 31 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL THE MODELS ARE STILL PERFORMING WELL.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW PAST 60 HOURS AND
EVEN THEN THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SHOW STOPPERS...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH IT. OUT WEST THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS GOOD BUT THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A LITTLE WITH THE
COMPLEX LOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF TRIPLE POINT LOWS IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THE
MODELS CONVERGE ON A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND MOVING
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
GOOD...THEY ARE JUST STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THE COMPLEX LOW
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BIGGEST WEATHER FEATURE TODAY IS A
LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN AND NEAR THE GULF AS WELL AS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP A DOUBLE CENTER
OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE MAIN LOW HEADS NORTHEAST AND A SECONDARY
CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN
HAPPENING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGE NEAR 55N 145W THIS AFTERNOON. DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND.
    IN THE WEST A STRONG FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AS A MODERATE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA BEHIND IT.
    THE JET STREAM REMAINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
JUST THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON THE EDGE OF
IT. THE JET CURRENTLY COMES OFF OF JAPAN AND THEN INTO THE LARGE LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE WEST WITH JUST
A SLIGHT DRIFT SOUTH IN THE JET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
THE PORTION IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO CANADA
LEAVING THE JET WELL SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE STATE FOR
AWHILE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL FALL ALONG THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CAN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND TURN ALL
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. THE SNOW ADVISORY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO END THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW IN THE ILIAMNA AREA SHOULD CUT OFF
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE PATTERN OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND 850 MB
THERMAL PACKING OVER COOK INLET THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY IN
COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTH GULF OR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
INCLUDING ANCHORAGE. IT STILL IS A LITTLE EARLY TO CALL IN A SURE
THING BUT THE PATTERN SETTING UP IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 140 150 155 170 172 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 138 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 155 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 07