Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE STILL IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE GFS MODEL IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN VERY STABLE OVER THE LAST NUMBER
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THAT SPAN. THE ISSUES WITH THE
MULTIPLE WEAK SURFACE LOWS OVER THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS IN THE BERING
SEA REMAIN BUT WILL HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECASTS.
OVERALL THE GFS LOOKS VERY GOOD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...TWO LOWS ARE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ONE LARGE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND THE OTHER A MODERATE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA. IN BETWEEN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THE 250 MB JET STREAM IS SEEN ON THE SATELLITE WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE JET LOOKS TO REMAIN ZONAL IN NATURE AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
THE AREA THAT WILL PRODUCE AND MOVE THE LOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND KEEP THE LOWS IN THE BERING SEA AREA RELATIVELY WEAK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AREA
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO TURN IT TO RAIN IN CORDOVA WHILE KODIAK CITY HAS HAD A RAIN
SNOW MIX THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE UNLIKELY
TO SEE ANT PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING UNDER THE RIDGE
WITH NO PRECIPITATION. AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO THE WIDESPREAD BERING SEA STRATUS.
THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A LOW IN NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL TO DEEPEN AND
ENLARGE INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL CENTER ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STATE AND PUT VIRTUALLY ALL OF ALASKA INTO CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SNOW CHANCES MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 140 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08