Gale Warning 38, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 020009
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 965 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 80 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT AND WEAKEN TO 978 MB THU. A 978 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 75 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WED NIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THU.
$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. PROBLEMS SURFACE
WITH THE DETAILS. ONE OF THESE IS THE MULTIPLE SURFACE LOW FEATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ANOTHER IS
HANDLING OF FRONT AND LOW POSITIONS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS. FOR THE FIRST ISSUE...DETAILS WERE USED FROM NAM WITH
SOME HELP FROM THE GFS. FOR THE SECOND ISSUE...GFS PREFERRED AS NAM
CAN STRUGGLE WITH FEATURES NEAR THE EDGE OF ITS DOMAIN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WITH ASSOCIATED STORM/HURRICANE FORCE
SURFACE LOW(S). RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND
CURLING INTO ALASKA NORTH OF THE GULF LOW. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER KAMCHATKA. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA BETWEEN THESE LOWS JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK BUT SOON TO BE IMPORTANT
LOW CENTERED NEAR KOTZEBUE. SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERING THE WESTERN
PACIFIC NEAR JAPAN AND RACING EAST/NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS THEN CURLING AROUND THE GULF LOW. POLAR JET SO WEAK NEAR
ALASKA THAT IT BARELY WARRANTS MENTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
GULF LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
SHOULD BE OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME THE
KOTZEBUE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE FORMER KOTZEBUE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND ENLARGE INTO THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CENTER ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE AND PUT
VIRTUALLY ALL OF ALASKA INTO CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SNOW CHANCES MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 130 132.
         GALE WARNING 125 138 140 150 155 176 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 130 138 140 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 08