Gale Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 020009
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-021500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 54N 146W WILL MOVE TO 58N 138W AND WEAKEN TO 978 MB
THU. A 978 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 59N 149W WED NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU.
$$

PKZ351-021500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-021500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. PROBLEMS SURFACE
WITH THE DETAILS. ONE OF THESE IS THE MULTIPLE SURFACE LOW FEATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ANOTHER IS
HANDLING OF FRONT AND LOW POSITIONS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS. FOR THE FIRST ISSUE...DETAILS WERE USED FROM NAM WITH
SOME HELP FROM THE GFS. FOR THE SECOND ISSUE...GFS PREFERRED AS NAM
CAN STRUGGLE WITH FEATURES NEAR THE EDGE OF ITS DOMAIN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WITH ASSOCIATED STORM/HURRICANE FORCE
SURFACE LOW(S). RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND
CURLING INTO ALASKA NORTH OF THE GULF LOW. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER KAMCHATKA. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA BETWEEN THESE LOWS JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK BUT SOON TO BE IMPORTANT
LOW CENTERED NEAR KOTZEBUE. SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERING THE WESTERN
PACIFIC NEAR JAPAN AND RACING EAST/NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS THEN CURLING AROUND THE GULF LOW. POLAR JET SO WEAK NEAR
ALASKA THAT IT BARELY WARRANTS MENTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
GULF LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
SHOULD BE OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME THE
KOTZEBUE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE FORMER KOTZEBUE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND ENLARGE INTO THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CENTER ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE AND PUT
VIRTUALLY ALL OF ALASKA INTO CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SNOW CHANCES MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 130 132.
         GALE WARNING 125 138 140 150 155 176 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 130 138 140 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 08