Small Craft Advisory 978, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

REX BLOCK PERSISTS AT UPPER LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER HIGH
NORTH OF BARROW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR SHELIKOF STRAIT. RIDGING IS
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EAST OF KAMCHATKA. AT THE SURFACE...A
DEEP LOW IS JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER
KAMCHATKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...MOVING THE LOW EAST OF KODIAK TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE MAT-SU THIS EVENING WHERE IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH
THU. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD A KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BERING
AND REACHES THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FRI AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST LEANS
HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH WED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM GALE FORCE. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
BERING WED WITH GALES AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL REACH THE PRIBILOFS THU. BEHIND THE FRONT...GALES AND STORMS AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR SW AK...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE KODIAK LOW TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS RANGES AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. RIDGING WILL DRY OUT THE AREA THU
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE KENAI.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE WEST OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR VALDEZ...LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND HEAVIER AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL FALL
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE SUSITNA AND COPPER RIVER BASIN EARLY WED MORNING. AT
THAT TIME HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO THE COPPER RIVER AND
EASTERN CHUGACH AREAS WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE WEST. RIDGE
BUILDING WITH DRYING CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WESTERN SECTIONS THU
TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING FRI
WITH STRONG WINDS AND RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE PRIBILOFS
FRI BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES SAT. FOR SW AK...THE FIRST WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INLAND FRI WITH SOME WIND AND SNOW. A RIDGE THEN DRIES
OUT THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK
RANGE...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 131
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 132 140 170 172 176 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 08