Gale Warning 826, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 100028
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED. A 989 MB LOW WILL FORM 600 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA WED MORNING AND MOVE TO 350 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON
AT 976 MB. A STRONG FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WED AFTERNOON AND TRACK TO THE EASTERN BERING THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-101500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-101500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-101500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-101500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

REX BLOCK PERSISTS AT UPPER LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER HIGH
NORTH OF BARROW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR SHELIKOF STRAIT. RIDGING IS
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EAST OF KAMCHATKA. AT THE SURFACE...A
DEEP LOW IS JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER
KAMCHATKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...MOVING THE LOW EAST OF KODIAK TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE MAT-SU THIS EVENING WHERE IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH
THU. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD A KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BERING
AND REACHES THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FRI AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST LEANS
HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH WED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM GALE FORCE. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
BERING WED WITH GALES AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL REACH THE PRIBILOFS THU. BEHIND THE FRONT...GALES AND STORMS AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR SW AK...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE KODIAK LOW TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS RANGES AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. RIDGING WILL DRY OUT THE AREA THU
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE KENAI.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE WEST OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR VALDEZ...LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND HEAVIER AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL FALL
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE SUSITNA AND COPPER RIVER BASIN EARLY WED MORNING. AT
THAT TIME HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO THE COPPER RIVER AND
EASTERN CHUGACH AREAS WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE WEST. RIDGE
BUILDING WITH DRYING CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WESTERN SECTIONS THU
TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING FRI
WITH STRONG WINDS AND RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE PRIBILOFS
FRI BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES SAT. FOR SW AK...THE FIRST WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INLAND FRI WITH SOME WIND AND SNOW. A RIDGE THEN DRIES
OUT THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK
RANGE...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 131
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 132 140 170 172 176 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 08