Gale Warning 779, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 091153
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 961 MB LOW NEAR 58N 150W
WEAKENS TO 972 MB TUE AFTERNOON NEAR 60N 150W AND THEN MOVES INLAND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-100300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 TO 25 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-100300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 TO 28 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 100050
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 971 MB LOW NEAR 60N 149W WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND 
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUE NIGHT. TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE 
WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF WED THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ351-101500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-101500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 101153
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ351-110300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-110300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 110002
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-111500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THU.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI.

$$

PKZ351-111500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-111500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
105 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP
TODAY IS A DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED CUT-OFF LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. UPPER JET IS RIDING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THIS
LOW AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A CUT-OFF HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
THEREFORE THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TRACK MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COL REGION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT HAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
WATERS. AUGUSTINE ISLAND C-MAN STATION IS ALSO APPROACHING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WITH A RECENT GUST TO 61KT. THE RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA HAS TRANSPORTED ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF THE
STRONG LOW COMBINED WITH THE LARGE DENSITY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INLAND
AIR AND GULF AIR IS RESULTING IN STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
OF NOTE IS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WINDS WHICH HAVE APPROACHED HIGH
WIND CRITERIA. WASILLA HANDAR (WSLA2) ACTUALLY REPORTED ONE GUST
TO 64KT EARLIER BUT IS NOW HOLDING STEADY BELOW WARNING LEVELS AT
58KT.

OUT WEST A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SHEARING APART OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. THERE IS A BAND OF STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS INDICATED BY THE GUST TO 47KT AT ATKA SHORTLY AFTER
THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF LOW ACROSS GULF AND INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH SYSTEMS APPROACHING
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. THEREFORE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FINE-TUNE
FORECAST AND BEYOND WILL STICK MAINLY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AS IS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT
IT EXPECT WHILE WINDS REMAIN STRONG THE SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE QUARTER MILE BLIZZARD THRESHOLD.
AS STEADY AND HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A WAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT INLAND AND BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST
OF THE REGION INCLUDING ANCHORAGE. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RIDGE MOVING TO
MAINLAND ALASKA...RESULTING IN A COOLING AND DRYING TREND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...OFFSHORE FLOW IS ALSO LIMITING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG
THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FROM
BRISTOL BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF RUSSIA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE...BUT
UNDER PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW THE NEXT BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY FRIDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS THE DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE
GULF...RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES AND COLD ADVECTION SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF EASTERN
ASIA. THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BEYOND THIS
POINT...BUT WITH A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND MODEL DEPICTION
OF STRONG BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A STRONG SYSTEM
OR SYSTEMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA BEGINNING THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG BLOCKING
RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND
ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO NORTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...130.
         STORM WARNING...120 140.
         GALE WARNING...138 141 155 170 172 175 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...160 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 08