Gale Warning 823, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 090358 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

UPDATED ZONE 150

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 958 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL WEAKEN TO 970 MB AS IT 
MOVES TO 50 NM EAST OF SEWARD TUE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING SEA REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A 
STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WED.

$$

PKZ150-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
700 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-091500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT.  SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-091500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 091248
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 961 MB LOW 75 NM EAST OF KODIAK WEAKENS TO 972 MB TUE AFTERNOON
NEAR SEWARD. NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE BERING THROUGH WED. A
WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING WED MORNING AND REACHES THE
CENTRAL BERING WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-100300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
105 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP
TODAY IS A DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED CUT-OFF LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. UPPER JET IS RIDING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THIS
LOW AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A CUT-OFF HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
THEREFORE THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TRACK MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COL REGION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT HAS SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
WATERS. AUGUSTINE ISLAND C-MAN STATION IS ALSO APPROACHING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WITH A RECENT GUST TO 61KT. THE RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA HAS TRANSPORTED ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF THE
STRONG LOW COMBINED WITH THE LARGE DENSITY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INLAND
AIR AND GULF AIR IS RESULTING IN STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
OF NOTE IS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WINDS WHICH HAVE APPROACHED HIGH
WIND CRITERIA. WASILLA HANDAR (WSLA2) ACTUALLY REPORTED ONE GUST
TO 64KT EARLIER BUT IS NOW HOLDING STEADY BELOW WARNING LEVELS AT
58KT.

OUT WEST A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SHEARING APART OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. THERE IS A BAND OF STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS INDICATED BY THE GUST TO 47KT AT ATKA SHORTLY AFTER
THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF LOW ACROSS GULF AND INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH SYSTEMS APPROACHING
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. THEREFORE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FINE-TUNE
FORECAST AND BEYOND WILL STICK MAINLY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AS IS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT
IT EXPECT WHILE WINDS REMAIN STRONG THE SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE QUARTER MILE BLIZZARD THRESHOLD.
AS STEADY AND HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A WAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT INLAND AND BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST
OF THE REGION INCLUDING ANCHORAGE. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RIDGE MOVING TO
MAINLAND ALASKA...RESULTING IN A COOLING AND DRYING TREND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...OFFSHORE FLOW IS ALSO LIMITING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG
THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FROM
BRISTOL BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF RUSSIA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE...BUT
UNDER PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW THE NEXT BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY FRIDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS THE DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE
GULF...RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES AND COLD ADVECTION SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF EASTERN
ASIA. THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BEYOND THIS
POINT...BUT WITH A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND MODEL DEPICTION
OF STRONG BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A STRONG SYSTEM
OR SYSTEMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA BEGINNING THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG BLOCKING
RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND
ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO NORTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...130.
         STORM WARNING...120 140.
         GALE WARNING...138 141 155 170 172 175 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...160 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 08