Small Craft Advisory 85, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 30 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SAME ISSUES AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE GOOD
IN THE SHORT TERM...NO SO GOOD LATER ON. THE PROBLEM REMAINS THE SAME
WITH THE MODELS UNABLE TO REACH A CONSENSUS ON WHERE THE TRIPLE POINT
LOWS WILL FORM AND THEN WHERE TO MOVE THEM WHEN THEY DO. LOOKING AT
THE OVERALL SITUATION IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE LOWS THAT DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. GFS TAKES THIS APPROACH BUT
THE NEW ECMWF PUSHES THE ENERGY INTO THE BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM
LOCATION DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS PUSH INTO THE BERING SEA AND THE GFS
IS PREFERRED OVERALL. IT IS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTIES AS WELL BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTING WHERE THE LOWS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA IS
WEAKENING AND HEADING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS HELPED TO MIX THE AIR ENOUGH TO BREAK
UP MOST OF THE FOG THAT WAS OCCURRING YESTERDAY IN THAT AREA. SHORT
WAVE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF AS
IT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.
A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF ATTU WILL MOVE NORTH OF AMCHITKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN IN THAT AREA AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...FOG AND STRATUS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT FRO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AREA
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WILL SEE THE EFFECTS
OF THE LARGE LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN TO RAIN THURSDAY AS THE WARMER PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM FORECASTS
DUE TO THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DISCUSSED ABOVE. MAINLAND ALASKA
SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS REMAIN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 170 179.
         STORM 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08