Small Craft Advisory 84, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED JAN 30 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES UP FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WEST OF SHEMYA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SERIES OF LOWS COVERING THE EXTENT OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FALL APART AS
THE EASTERN LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE WESTERN LOW WILL HOLD WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER BROAD TROUGH OVER MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. A UPPER SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN BERING THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
FLATTEN OUT AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE GULF.  THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
FAIRLY ZONAL FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE MAIN JET IS STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF MAINLY RUNNING ALONG 50N.

THE STRONG SURFACE THE LOW ENTERING THE GULF SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY
TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BREAKING DOWN.
THE INTENSE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BE CENTERED
NEAR AMCHITKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AS 970 MB. A STRONG ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND STRETCH ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN STRETCH OUT AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND COOK
INLET THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GET AN OFF SHORE FLOW WITH KEEPING
FOG OUT OF THESE AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MAINLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY AND SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
INTERIOR ZONES BUT IT WILL BACK TO A DRY PATTERN AFTER THURSDAY.

OUT WEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE BERING EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING.
SNOW OR SNOW AND RAIN WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE STRONG FRONT FROM THE
LOW OUT WEST MOVES EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT IN
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN LOW TRACK WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
ISLANDS AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. FOG AND STRATUS WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 172 175 176.
         GALES 132 150 155 170 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08