Small Craft Advisory 83, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 29 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE FINE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM. THE DIFFERENCES OCCUR WHEN THE NEXT LARGE LOW MOVES INTO
THE ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR ATTU. THIS COMPLEX LOW WILL REMAIN
FAR WEST BUT A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL SPAWN OFF OF IT IN THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE BEST THINKING AT THIS TIME IS
THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS IS A DIFFICULT PATTERN FOR THE MODELS TO
RESOLVE AND WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE WHERE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TRIPLE POINT LOWS WILL OCCUR.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONGEST PART OF THE JET STREAM
RUNS ZONALLY OUT OF EASTERN ASIA AND JAPAN AND THEN DIMINISHES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT THEN INCREASES A LITTLE AS IT
RIDES OVER A RIDGE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS CAN BE SEEN
EASILY ON THE IR SATELLITE. THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN IN THIS
GENERAL AREA AND IS THEREFORE THE MAIN TRACK THE LOWS WILL TAKE THIS
WEEK.
A STRONG LOW IS SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND HEADING
TO THE EAST. ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.
THERE IS ANOTHER LOW WEST OF THIS CAN SEEN ON SATELLITE BUT IT DOES
NOT HAVE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES
181 AND 185...THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. DUTCH
HARBOR HAS BEEN CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
IT MAY VERIFY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES DROP. COLD
BAY WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME VERIFYING WITH THE LOW MOVING DUE EAST
AND NOT A LITTLE NORTHWARD THAT WOULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW INTO COLD
BAY. AREAS EAST OF COLD BAY ARE NOT IN THE WARNING.

THE BIG ISSUE IN MAINLAND ALASKA IS FOG AND STRATUS. THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COAST IS PACKED IN THINK AND IS IN NO HURRY TO DISSIPATE. COOK
INLET IS ALSO FILLED WITH STRATUS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE GULF COAST IS GETTING OFF SHORE FLOW WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND THEREFORE NO STRATUS.

THERE WAS A QUESTION EARLIER AS TO WHETHER THE LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY
WILL AFFECT KODIAK ISLAND. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
ONLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO GET ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM IT EARLY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE MAIN LOW TRACK WILL
REMAIN ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS AND SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME CLEAR PERIODS OVER THE MAINLAND
PART OF THE STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOG AND STRATUS WILL
REMAIN A FACTOR HOWEVER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181 185.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 170 171 176.
         STORM 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08