Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MCS BEARING DOWN ON NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MCS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH AS IT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SEVERE
WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SOME AS
THE COMPLEX MOVES INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
INSTABILITIES ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH AFTERNOON HEATING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE DECAYING COMPLEX. ALSO COULD SEE
AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MAV FOR TODAY AS THE GFS IS
STRUGGLING SOME WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SWEEPS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY THE
POPS WILL DROP. A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  65  81  63 /  60  60  50  30
FSM   86  67  83  64 /  80  20  50  30
MLC   87  66  81  61 /  60  50  50  30
BVO   78  62  82  60 /  50  60  50  30
FYV   81  63  79  58 /  80  20  50  30
BYV   82  64  80  60 /  80  20  50  30
MKO   85  66  80  62 /  60  40  50  30
MIO   79  63  82  60 /  60  50  50  30
F10   85  66  80  62 /  60  50  50  30
HHW   86  66  80  63 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA...

A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS
SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD 40 TO
50 MPH WINDS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM LINE WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM CDT. THE STRONGER BOW SEGMENTS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 70 MPH AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LEADING THUNDERSTORM LINE AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINE WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NEEDED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ENSURE AN OVERNIGHT MEANS OF WEATHER ALERT AND
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE...SUCH AS NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE MORNING STORMS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WEAK SHEAR OVER THE
REGION WILL PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND A
BOUNDARY NEARBY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR
INFORMATION ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 ESE FORAKER           36.83N 96.43W
06/01/2007  M65.30 MPH       OSAGE              OK   MESONET

&&

NMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRFAX                 36.57N 96.70W
06/01/2007                   OSAGE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKZ061-010930-
ROGERS OK-
338 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ROGERS

AT 338 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES WEST OF CATOOSA TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TALALA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...
FOYIL...OOLOGAH...BUSHYHEAD...TALALA AND CHELSEA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3617 9582 3659 9581 3660 9540 3619 9547

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE COPAN             36.91N 95.89W
06/01/2007  M69.80 MPH       WASHINGTON         OK   MESONET

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKZ064>066-010930-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
354 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 354 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF HECTORVILLE TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MILFAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON...
OKFUSKEE...WELTY...OKMULGEE...PRESTON...BEGGS...BALD HILL...
HECTORVILLE...MILFAY...SLICK AND DEPEW.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3586 9580 3579 9662 3541 9659 3569 9574

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