Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 010829
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKC037-010845-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-070601T0845Z/
CREEK OK-
329 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTY...

AT 327 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM DRUMRIGHT TO MANNFORD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3617 9660 3585 9662 3586 9632 3617 9631

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MCS BEARING DOWN ON NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MCS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH AS IT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SEVERE
WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SOME AS
THE COMPLEX MOVES INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
INSTABILITIES ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH AFTERNOON HEATING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE DECAYING COMPLEX. ALSO COULD SEE
AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MAV FOR TODAY AS THE GFS IS
STRUGGLING SOME WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SWEEPS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY THE
POPS WILL DROP. A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  65  81  63 /  60  60  50  30
FSM   86  67  83  64 /  80  20  50  30
MLC   87  66  81  61 /  60  50  50  30
BVO   78  62  82  60 /  50  60  50  30
FYV   81  63  79  58 /  80  20  50  30
BYV   82  64  80  60 /  80  20  50  30
MKO   85  66  80  62 /  60  40  50  30
MIO   79  63  82  60 /  60  50  50  30
F10   85  66  80  62 /  60  50  50  30
HHW   86  66  80  63 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 200 AM CDT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   OVERNIGHT...

A STRONG TO SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS MOVING RAPIDLY
ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND 200 AM CDT. THE STRONGER BOW SEGMENTS
WILL LIKELY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 65 MPH AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA...KANSAS STATE LINE. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
COUPLED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL POSE A
LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 AND WEAKENS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NEEDED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ENSURE AN OVERNIGHT MEANS OF WEATHER ALERT AND
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE...SUCH AS NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE MORNING STORMS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WEAK SHEAR OVER THE
REGION WILL PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND A
BOUNDARY NEARBY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR
INFORMATION ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

OKZ054-010445-
OSAGE OK-
1119 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 1119 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GRAINOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3688 9677 3687 9666 3701 9644 3701 9673

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     HAIL             BURBANK                 36.69N 96.73W
06/01/2007  E0.88 INCH       OSAGE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0240 AM     TSTM WND GST     BURBANK                 36.69N 96.73W
06/01/2007  E65.00 MPH       OSAGE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND GST     FORAKER                 36.87N 96.57W
06/01/2007  M65 MPH          OSAGE              OK   MESONET

&&

NMK