Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 010714
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
214 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKC113-117-010800-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-070601T0800Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
214 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 213 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS TO 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 13 MILES WEST OF PAWNEE TO 13 MILES WEST OF RALSTON TO 16 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WEBB CITY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...APPERSON...
PAWNEE...BURBANK...WEBB CITY...FAIRFAX...RALSTON...SHIDLER...
GRAINOLA...MARAMEC...SKEDEE...FORAKER...BLACKBURN...HALLETT...
PEARSONIA...TERLTON...CLEVELAND...OSAGE...PAWHUSKA...WESTPORT...
HOMINY...WYNONA...PERSHING...NELAGONEY...BIGHEART...OKESA...TALLANT
AND BARNSDALL.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE COVER
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3697 9675 3665 9707 3637 9703 3618 9680
      3618 9628 3661 9608 3701 9622

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 010738
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
237 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKC113-117-010800-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-070601T0800Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
237 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS TO 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PAWNEE TO FAIRFAX TO GRAINOLA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
BURBANK TO RALSTON...WHERE WIND DAMAGE EQUIVALENT TO EF0 IS LIKELY.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SKEDEE...
FORAKER...MARAMEC...BLACKBURN...PEARSONIA...HALLETT...PAWHUSKA...
WYNONA...WESTPORT...CLEVELAND...TERLTON...BIGHEART...OKESA...
NELAGONEY...TALLANT...PERSHING...BARNSDALL...HOMINY AND OSAGE.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE COVER
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3697 9675 3665 9707 3637 9703 3618 9680
      3618 9628 3661 9608 3701 9622

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
141 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
DOWNSTREAM CONDITIONS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AXIS OF CAPE TO 700MB HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED DURING RECENT HOURS...AND CURRENTLY EXPANDS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THIS ALSO
CORRESPONDS TO AN AXIS OF LOWER LFC HEIGHTS. THIS DATA CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT IDEA OF LIMITED RESISTANCE FOR EXCESSIVE WINDS TO REACH
THE SURFACE...AND THE RECENT MEASUREMENTS OF SEVERE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ATTEST TO THE POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO INCREASE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AREA VAD/PROFILER WIND DATA SUPPORT
THESE INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES. THIS WILL RAISE POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COMPLEX...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE DANGEROUS WIND POTENTIAL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 200 AM CDT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   OVERNIGHT...

A STRONG TO SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS MOVING RAPIDLY
ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND 200 AM CDT. THE STRONGER BOW SEGMENTS
WILL LIKELY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 65 MPH AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA...KANSAS STATE LINE. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
COUPLED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL POSE A
LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 AND WEAKENS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NEEDED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ENSURE AN OVERNIGHT MEANS OF WEATHER ALERT AND
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE...SUCH AS NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE MORNING STORMS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WEAK SHEAR OVER THE
REGION WILL PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND A
BOUNDARY NEARBY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR
INFORMATION ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

OKZ054-010445-
OSAGE OK-
1119 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 1119 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GRAINOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3688 9677 3687 9666 3701 9644 3701 9673