Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD NEXT 36 HOURS. GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE
LINE OF THUNDER..FOR NORTHWEST PORTION OF TULSA AREA
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...RAINFALL APPROACHING FFG #S
FROM EARLIER ROUND OF CONVECTION. FLOOD WATCH ISSUED.
MAIN STREAM / LARGER RIVERS WILL ALSO RESPOND... AND
MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AS WELL LATER TODAY.
EXPECT THUNDER TO PROGRESS FAIR DISTANCE INTO IF NOT
THROUGH CWA BEFORE GIVING WAY TO DIURNAL DEATH. MORE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE SET UP FOR ADDITIONAL  CONVECTION
LATE TODAY OR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSEASONABLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE / HIGH PWA VALUES WILL LIKELY PROMPT MORE
FLOOD WATCHES... BUT DID NOT WANT TO USE THE SHOTGUN
APPROACH AT THIS TIME IN HOPE THAT LATER MODELS WILL
MORE IN SYNC.  GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  67  81  62 /  80  90  40  30
FSM   87  68  84  64 /  50  50  50  30
MLC   84  68  80  63 /  60  70  30  50
BVO   80  62  79  60 /  80  80  40  30
FYV   82  66  79  60 /  60  60  50  30
BYV   81  66  78  60 /  50  50  50  30
MKO   83  68  79  63 /  70  70  40  40
MIO   82  66  80  60 /  90  50  50  30
F10   83  68  79  62 /  70  70  40  40
HHW   84  67  81  63 /  50  40  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-
     OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
555 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE STORMS PUSH INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS
OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS WITH SOME PLACES IN THE TULSA
METROPOLITAN AREA HAVING ALREADY RECEIVED 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN.
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THE TULSA AREA AND WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDDAY WITH
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
BY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS THE ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EAST SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH A LESSER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
REMAIN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
429 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 AM     HAIL             DEPEW                   35.80N 96.51W
05/07/2007  E0.88 INCH       CREEK              OK   PUBLIC

&&

MEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKZ057-058-060>068-070-071-071045-
CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH
OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OTTAWA OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA
OK-WAGONER OK-
445 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE...WAGONER...SOUTHERN ROGERS...DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
     CRAIG...OTTAWA...SOUTHERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND MAYES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MUSKOGEE...CHEROKEE AND OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH

AT 445 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF COMMERCE TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CLAREMORE TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HECTORVILLE TO 26 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PADEN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF OKMULGEE...NORTHERN MUSKOGEE...WAGONER...SOUTHERN
ROGERS...DELAWARE...SOUTHERN CRAIG...OTTAWA...SOUTHERN CREEK...
CHEROKEE...OKFUSKEE...NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH...SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND
MAYES COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 545 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3701 9497 3628 9572 3581 9595 3557 9677
      3526 9604 3580 9500 3628 9476 3700 9460

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