Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 070214
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKC037-107-070300-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-070507T0300Z/
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
914 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE AND WESTERN CREEK COUNTIES...

AT 914 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
MILFAY...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILFAY...
DEPEW...SHAMROCK AND SILVER CITY.

A SECOND SEVERE STORM WAS CURRENTLY ACROSS SEMINOLE COUNTY..IN THE 
VICINITY OF SEMINOLE AN WAS MOVING NORTH AND WILL AFFECT WESTERN 
OKFUSKEE COUNTY.   

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3556 9662 3557 9649 3617 9642 3617 9658

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE REMOVAL OF TORNADO WATCH #246
THAT PREVIOUSLY WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ALL SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION REMAINED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS
DEEPENING MERIDIONAL FLOW HAS EFFECTIVELY NEGATED ANY EASTWARD
COMPONENT TO STORM MOTION. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL PERUSE 00Z GUIDANCE AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR
A POSSIBLE TEMP/POP UPDATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT
REMAINS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH AS IT HAS FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE CAP WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO BREAK AS THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED SURFACE FOCUS
MECHANISM TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE PHOTOS DO INDICATE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
ANY SURFACE-BASED UPDRAFTS DEVELOP...THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE ROTATION WITH THREAT OF TORNADOES. PLEASE NOTE
THAT EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL CHANCE OF A SURFACE BASED STORM IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS QUITE LOW...THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS HIGH. THEREFORE A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE LEFT IN THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
HEAVY RAIN AND A LOW GRADE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST IN
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IF THE STORMS MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST. ELEVATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST OF
THESE STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EAST THIS WEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT HEAVY RAIN
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE WEEK GOES ON.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
REMAIN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ057-062345-
CRAIG OK-
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CRAIG

AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WELCH...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PYRAMID CORNERS AND WELCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3679 9519 3679 9508 3700 9499 3702 9516

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ056-070130-
NOWATA OK-
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN NOWATA

AT 815 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LENAPAH...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LENAPAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3683 9569 3682 9552 3701 9546 3700 9568

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ054-060-064-070215-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-TULSA OK-
844 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...EASTERN CREEK AND TULSA

AT 844 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
COLLINSVILLE...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...GRAY...TULSA...SAND SPRINGS...JENKS...OWASSO...
GLENPOOL...SPERRY...SKIATOOK...COLLINSVILLE...MOUNDS...KIEFER AND
SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3586 9621 3582 9600 3643 9580 3641 9610

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
852 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ054-060-064-070245-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-TULSA OK-
852 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...EASTERN CREEK AND CENTRAL TULSA

AT 852 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KIEFER...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GRAY...TULSA...SAND
SPRINGS...JENKS...GLENPOOL...SPERRY...SKIATOOK...KIEFER AND SAPULPA.

LAT...LON 3589 9621 3586 9599 3644 9585 3644 9615