Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
250 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS PUSHING DEEPER INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  CAPE TO
700 MB IS CONFINED TO A NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM
LINCOLN COUNTY SOUTH.  NO APPRECIABLE CAPE TO 700 MB EXISTS
IN THE TULSA FORECAST AREA...SO A WEAKENING OF THE STORMS
IS LIKELY AS THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST.  EXPERIMINETAL WIND
GUST ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL
FROM TULSA SOUTH...WITH LOWER VALUES IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...SO EVEN THE WEAKER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...AND THIS TREND WILL BE
MONITORED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
929 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA
	ONSET....ONGOING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WAS WEAKLY CAPPED ALLOWED THUNDERSTORMS
TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE ROTATION WITH THREAT OF TORNADOES. THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EAST THIS WEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT HEAVY RAIN
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE WEEK GOES ON.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
REMAIN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKZ054-070615-
OSAGE OK-
1259 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OSAGE

AT 1259 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTH OF HULAH TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HULAH TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF BIGHEART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...BIGHEART AND HULAH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3683 9602 3680 9604 3679 9631 3700 9613
      3700 9601 3699 9603

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
133 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKZ054-070700-
OSAGE OK-
133 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 133 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTH OF WEBB CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WEBB CITY...FORAKER AND GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3680 9676 3679 9659 3700 9648 3699 9675

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKZ054-059-070730-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
150 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHERN PAWNEE

AT 150 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAINOLA TO 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF FAIRFAX TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...SHIDLER...HOMINY...WYNONA...FAIRFAX...
PERSHING...BURBANK...WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER...
GRAINOLA...PAWNEE...BLACKBURN...SKEDEE AND RALSTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG
...AND OCCASIONALLY TO THE EAST OF THE PRECIPITATION. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3694 9677 3660 9676 3627 9691 3634 9643
      3673 9618 3707 9619

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKZ054>056-060-061-070815-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
234 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...WESTERN NOWATA...WASHINGTON...EASTERN
     OSAGE AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA

AT 234 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM BIGHEART TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERSHING TO 18
MILES WEST OF SPERRY TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPERRY...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...WANN...OOLOGAH...BARNSDALL...HULAH...OWASSO...SKIATOOK...
COLLINSVILLE...BARTLESVILLE AND COPAN.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES ARE PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THAT ARE MOVING EAST AT
ABOUT 40 MPH.  WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG...
AND SEVERAL MILES AHEAD OF THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3694 9629 3626 9630 3626 9568 3694 9568

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKZ054>056-059>061-064-070830-
CREEK OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON
OK-
240 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...WESTERN NOWATA...WASHINGTON...EASTERN
     OSAGE...NORTHERN CREEK...NORTHERN TULSA AND SOUTHEASTERN
     PAWNEE

AT 240 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF BIGHEART TO BARNSDALL TO 5 MILES
NORTH OF WESTPORT TO OILTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BARTLESVILLE...TULSA
...KEYSTONE LAKE...MANNFORD...SANDSPRINGS...AND OWASSO.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES ARE PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THAT ARE MOVING EAST AT
ABOUT 40 MPH.  WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG...
AND SEVERAL MILES AHEAD OF THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3692 9625 3653 9629 3628 9641 3599 9676
      3609 9608 3637 9574 3663 9561 3701 9556

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKZ054>062-064>066-070930-
CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-MAYES OK-NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE
OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
331 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OKMULGEE...ROGERS...CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA...
     NOWATA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...CREEK...
     TULSA...NORTHWESTERN MAYES AND SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 331 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLLOW TO 6 MILES WEST OF
JENNINGS TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PADEN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN OKMULGEE...ROGERS...CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN
OTTAWA...NOWATA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...CREEK...
OKFUSKEE...TULSA...NORTHWESTERN MAYES AND SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE
COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 430 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9539 3621 9669 3545 9658 3528 9602
      3617 9580 3699 9448