Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Great Falls, MT

July 2, 2007Blaine County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2007, 7:31 PM MDT for Blaine County, Montana. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2007, 7:31 PM MDT (01:31 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2007, 8:15 PM MDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Blaine County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 163 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 2, 2:36 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 608 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -141 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2366 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 77 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 357 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KTFX 030131
SVRTFX
MTC005-030215-
/O.NEW.KTFX.SV.W.0083.070703T0131Z-070703T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
731 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 815 PM MDT

* AT 726 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
  WEST OF TURNER TO HAYS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FORT BELKNAP...HARLEM AND TURNER.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE 
HAIL...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4900 10898 4796 10900 4802 10851 4898 10831

$$

THOMSON

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS55 KTFX 030151
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
751 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTC005-030215-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-070703T0215Z/
BLAINE MT-
751 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN BLAINE COUNTY...

AT 747 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER 
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF TURNER TO 
34 MILES SOUTH OF FORT BELKNAP...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE 
DAMAGING HAIL...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4900 10898 4796 10900 4804 10850 4898 10831

$$

THOMSON

000 
WWUS55 KTFX 030210
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
810 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTC005-030220-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-070703T0215Z/
BLAINE MT-
810 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BLAINE COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 815 PM MDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4900 10898 4796 10900 4804 10850 4898 10831

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 5:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 5:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER AN
UNSTABLE SURFACE LEVEL AIRMASS BY LATE EVENING FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
A STRONG RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MPJ

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ANCHOR OVER AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
BUILD DOWN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTENS. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY AND MORE ON FRIDAY. COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH THE COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO
INCREASED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING UP AND OVER
THE AREA IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAMP

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. THE AIRMASS HAS AGAIN
DESTABILIZED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 06Z
WITH SKIES CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  93 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  53  86  55  90 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  91  58  95 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  52  88  53  93 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  43  83  44  85 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  50  86  52  90 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  57  92  57  96 /  30   0   0   0
LWT  55  85  55  89 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

&&

SHORT TERM...MPJ
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...EMANUEL

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 4:01 PM MDT, 3 hours 30 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
401 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTZ011-013-044-045-047-050-051-032215-
HILL-CHOUTEAU-TOOLE-LIBERTY-BLAINE-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
401 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008>010-012-014-015-046-048-049-052>055-032215-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-CASCADE-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-EASTERN PONDERA-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-
MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
401 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:29 PM MDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
629 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             10 E LEWISTOWN          47.06N 109.22W
07/02/2007  E0.88 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:37 PM MDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
637 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             20 E GERALDINE          47.60N 109.84W
07/02/2007  E0.25 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:50 PM MDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
650 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             6 N HAYS                48.08N 108.65W
07/02/2007  M1.50 INCH       BLAINE             MT   PUBLIC

            GROUND COATED UP TO 2 INCHES IN PLACES ... HAIL LASTED 15
            MINUTES

&&

MCGINNIS

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:54 PM MDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
654 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             20 NNE LEWISTOWN        47.33N 109.26W
07/02/2007  E1.75 INCH       FERGUS             MT   PUBLIC

            HAIL IN WARM SPRING CREEK COMPLETELY COVERD THE SURFACE
            OF THE WATER.

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:55 PM MDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
655 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             8 N HAYS                48.11N 108.65W
07/02/2007  E0.88 INCH       BLAINE             MT   PUBLIC

            GROUND COVERED TO AN AVERAGE OF ONE INCH ... HAIL LASTED
            ABOUT 30 MINUTES

&&

MCGINNIS

Local storm report, Jul 2, 7:20 PM MDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
720 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             HAYS                    47.99N 108.65W
07/02/2007  E2.50 INCH       BLAINE             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOST HAILSTONES GOLF BALL SIZE ... DAMAGE TO CAR ROOF ...
            HAIL LASTED ABOUT 20 MINUTES

&&

MCGINNIS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 6:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill	39 min
Jul 2, 6:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	45 min
Jul 2, 6:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	43 min
Jul 2, 6:47 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	TFX	Blaine	3 hr
Jul 2, 6:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.