Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Great Falls, MT

July 2, 2007Fergus County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2007, 6:15 PM MDT for Fergus County, Montana. It was in force for 45 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2007, 6:15 PM MDT (00:15 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2007, 7:00 PM MDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Fergus County, MT

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 2, 6:28 PM MDT	HAIL 0.88	10 E Lewistown, MT

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 2, 2:36 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 127 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -130 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3074 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 89 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 146 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KTFX 030015
SVRTFX
MTC027-030100-
/O.NEW.KTFX.SV.W.0080.070703T0015Z-070703T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
615 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN FERGUS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEWISTOWN...

* UNTIL 700 PM MDT

* AT 611 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEWISTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  8 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRASS RANGE AROUND 700 PM MDT.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4713 10951 4696 10946 4702 10876 4728 10881

$$

THOMSON

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS55 KTFX 030040
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
640 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTC027-030100-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-070703T0100Z/
FERGUS MT-
640 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHERN FERGUS COUNTY...

AT 637 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF GRASS RANGE...OR ABOUT 16 MILES EAST OF
LEWISTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE 8 MILES NORTH OF GRASS RANGE BY 700 
PM MDT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4713 10951 4696 10946 4702 10876 4728 10881

$$

THOMSON

000 
WWUS55 KTFX 030056
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
656 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTC027-030106-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-070703T0100Z/
FERGUS MT-
656 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN FERGUS COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 700 PM MDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4713 10951 4696 10946 4702 10876 4728 10881

$$

THOMSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 5:35 PM MDT, 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 5:35 PM MDT, 40 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER AN
UNSTABLE SURFACE LEVEL AIRMASS BY LATE EVENING FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
A STRONG RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MPJ

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ANCHOR OVER AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
BUILD DOWN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTENS. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY AND MORE ON FRIDAY. COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH THE COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO
INCREASED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING UP AND OVER
THE AREA IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAMP

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. THE AIRMASS HAS AGAIN
DESTABILIZED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 06Z
WITH SKIES CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  93 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  53  86  55  90 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  91  58  95 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  52  88  53  93 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  43  83  44  85 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  50  86  52  90 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  57  92  57  96 /  30   0   0   0
LWT  55  85  55  89 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

&&

SHORT TERM...MPJ
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...EMANUEL

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 4:01 PM MDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
401 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTZ011-013-044-045-047-050-051-032215-
HILL-CHOUTEAU-TOOLE-LIBERTY-BLAINE-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
401 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008>010-012-014-015-046-048-049-052>055-032215-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-CASCADE-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-EASTERN PONDERA-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-
MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
401 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 4:39 PM MDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
439 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             11 N CARTER             47.94N 110.96W
07/02/2007  E0.50 INCH       CHOUTEAU           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS AT 40 MPH GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH.

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 4:55 PM MDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
455 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             15 SW RUDYARD           48.41N 110.78W
07/02/2007  E0.50 INCH       LIBERTY            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW PENNY AND NICKLE SIZED STONES AT END OF EVENT.

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 5:04 PM MDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
504 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             10 NW GRASS RANGE       47.13N 108.95W
07/02/2007  E0.75 INCH       FERGUS             MT   PUBLIC

            HAIL LASTED ABOUT 7 MINUTES

&&

MCGINNIS

Local storm report, Jul 2, 5:22 PM MDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
522 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             5 NW CHINOOK            48.64N 109.31W
07/02/2007  E0.75 INCH       BLAINE             MT   PUBLIC

            MOST HAIL WAS HALF-INCH ... HAIL LASTED ABOUT 20 MINUTES

&&

MCGINNIS

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:08 PM MDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
608 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             6 N BIG SANDY           48.27N 110.11W
07/02/2007  E0.50 INCH       CHOUTEAU           MT   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUSTS 50 TO 55 MPH

&&

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:15 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
615 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             LEWISTOWN               47.06N 109.43W
07/02/2007  E0.88 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 6:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill	39 min
Jul 2, 6:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	43 min
Jul 2, 6:47 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	TFX	Blaine	3 hr
Jul 2, 6:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	31 min
Jul 2, 7:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.