Alert archive / Montana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2007

Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Great Falls, MT

July 2, 2007Blaine County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this flash flood warning at Jul 2, 2007, 6:47 PM MDT for Blaine County, Montana. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2007, 6:47 PM MDT (00:47 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2007, 9:45 PM MDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Whole counties

County Blaine County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 174 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 127 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -130 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3074 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 89 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 146 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KTFX 030048
FFWTFX
MTC005-030345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
647 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHINOOK...

* UNTIL 945 PM MDT

* AT 643 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CHINOOK...FORT BELKNAP...HARLEM
  AND TURNER.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN GREAT
FALLS.

LAT...LON 4781 10946 4806 10857 4893 10837 4894 10939

$$

2 follow-up statements

000
WGUS85 KTFX 030132
FFSTFX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
724 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTC005-030345-
BLAINE MT-
724 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM MDT FOR
BLAINE COUNTY...

AT 720 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST BLAINE COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CHINOOK...FORT BELKNAP...HARLEM... 
TURNER AND HAYS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA. STREAMS WILL LIKELY OVER-FLOW THEIR BANKS DUE TO THE 
HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY RUNNING CROW CREEK...LITTLE PEOPLES 
CREEK AND LODGE POLE CREEK IN SOUTHEAST BLAINE COUNTY.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN GREAT
FALLS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4781 10946 4806 10857 4893 10837 4894 10939

$$

000
WGUS85 KTFX 030344
FFSTFX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
944 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTC005-030354-
BLAINE MT-
944 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM MDT FOR BLAINE
COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4781 10946 4806 10857 4893 10837 4894 10939

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 2, 5:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 5:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER AN
UNSTABLE SURFACE LEVEL AIRMASS BY LATE EVENING FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
A STRONG RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MPJ

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ANCHOR OVER AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
BUILD DOWN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTENS. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY AND MORE ON FRIDAY. COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH THE COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO
INCREASED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING UP AND OVER
THE AREA IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAMP

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. THE AIRMASS HAS AGAIN
DESTABILIZED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 06Z
WITH SKIES CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  89  57  93 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  53  86  55  90 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  91  58  95 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  52  88  53  93 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  43  83  44  85 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  50  86  52  90 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  57  92  57  96 /  30   0   0   0
LWT  55  85  55  89 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

&&

SHORT TERM...MPJ
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...EMANUEL

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 4:01 PM MDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
401 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

MTZ011-013-044-045-047-050-051-032215-
HILL-CHOUTEAU-TOOLE-LIBERTY-BLAINE-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
401 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008>010-012-014-015-046-048-049-052>055-032215-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-CASCADE-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-EASTERN PONDERA-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-
MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
401 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 5:22 PM MDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
522 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             5 NW CHINOOK            48.64N 109.31W
07/02/2007  E0.75 INCH       BLAINE             MT   PUBLIC

            MOST HAIL WAS HALF-INCH ... HAIL LASTED ABOUT 20 MINUTES

&&

MCGINNIS

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:08 PM MDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
608 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             6 N BIG SANDY           48.27N 110.11W
07/02/2007  E0.50 INCH       CHOUTEAU           MT   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUSTS 50 TO 55 MPH

&&

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:15 PM MDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
615 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             LEWISTOWN               47.06N 109.43W
07/02/2007  E0.88 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:22 PM MDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
622 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     20 S HAVRE              48.25N 109.68W
07/02/2007  E60 MPH          HILL               MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:29 PM MDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
629 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             10 E LEWISTOWN          47.06N 109.22W
07/02/2007  E0.88 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:37 PM MDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
637 PM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             20 E GERALDINE          47.60N 109.84W
07/02/2007  E0.25 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 6:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill	39 min
Jul 2, 6:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	45 min
Jul 2, 6:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	43 min
Jul 2, 6:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	31 min
Jul 2, 7:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	44 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Montana, 2007 Every flash flood warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.