Alert archive / Minnesota / Tornado Watches in 2007

Tornado Watch 477

July 3, 200741 counties in Minnesota; 27 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 3, 2007, 12:10 PM CDT for 41 counties in Minnesota; 27 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 3, 2007, 12:10 PM CDT (17:10 UTC)
Expired
Jul 3, 2007, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 68 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Houston County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Mower County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Pine County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Steele County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Winona County, MN, Wright County, MN, Adams County, WI, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Iron County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
80%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 3, 12:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXSherburne, Stearns, Wright44 min
Jul 3, 2:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDakota, Rice27 min
Jul 3, 2:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXChisago45 min
Jul 3, 2:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXSaint Croix49 min
Jul 3, 3:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXChippewa, Eau Claire, Rusk43 min
Jul 3, 4:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXTrempealeau38 min
Jul 3, 4:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDunn, Pepin41 min
Jul 3, 4:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXEau Claire53 min
Jul 3, 4:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDakota, Rice, Scott42 min
Jul 3, 5:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXLa Crosse, Monroe66 min
Jul 3, 5:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXAdams33 min
Jul 3, 5:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXWright62 min
Jul 3, 5:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDakota, Goodhue, Rice64 min
Jul 3, 5:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXSteele, Waseca54 min
Jul 3, 5:41 PM CDTTornado WarningARXVernon34 min
Jul 3, 5:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBlue Earth44 min
Jul 3, 6:13 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXFaribault, Freeborn32 min
Jul 3, 6:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXSteele, Waseca63 min
Jul 3, 6:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXFreeborn53 min
Jul 3, 6:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXDodge, Mower, Olmsted64 min
Jul 3, 7:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXVernon28 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2007-07-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1198 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2007-07-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 45 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1198 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-50 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
975 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000
WWUS20 KWNS 031718
SEL7  
SPC WW 031718
MNZ000-WIZ000-040100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
       WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 115 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ROCHESTER
MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE FORMING IN CNTRL MN ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
ARCHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IN SD...WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCE BY APPARENT MCV NEAR STC.  STRONG HEATING AND
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF BOUNDARY/MCV WILL YIELD
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF WW LATER TODAY.  WHILE
CURRENT WIND FIELD IS RATHER MODEST...SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME.  RESULTING SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO MORE
NUMEROUS STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 3, 6:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Grant, Lac qui Parle, Stevens, Swift, Traverse and 1 more2 hr
Jul 3, 11:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chisago, Dakota and 23 more86 min
Jul 3, 2:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Cass, Clay, Clearwater and 12 more90 min
Jul 3, 3:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJackson, Martin, Nobles, Rock84 min
Jul 3, 3:59 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCJackson, Nobles8 hr
Jul 3, 5:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Brown, Carlton and 35 more55 min
Jul 3, 6:08 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCDodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha and 1 more6 hr
Jul 3, 6:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFaribault, Freeborn, Jackson, Martin, Nobles95 min
Jul 3, 4:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Calumet, Columbia, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake and 12 more58 min
Jul 3, 4:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Calumet, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac and 19 more4 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2007Tornado Watches in Wisconsin, 2007Every tornado watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.