Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2007

Tornado Watch 41

March 1, 20074 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 1, 2007, 1:32 AM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 1, 2007, 1:32 AM CST (07:32 UTC)
Expired
Mar 1, 2007, 8:00 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt
All 64 counties

Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Newton County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

48 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 1, 2:05 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSARogers, Wagoner24 min
Mar 1, 2:09 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAPittsburg36 min
Mar 1, 2:15 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Mayes60 min
Mar 1, 2:24 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSASequoyah30 min
Mar 1, 2:30 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton41 min
Mar 1, 2:42 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarton, Jasper63 min
Mar 1, 2:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAWagoner32 min
Mar 1, 2:47 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACherokee, Delaware58 min
Mar 1, 2:57 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAHaskell28 min
Mar 1, 2:59 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSALeFlore61 min
Mar 1, 3:00 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAWashington45 min
Mar 1, 3:04 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFBarton30 min
Mar 1, 3:11 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBenton, Hickory25 min
Mar 1, 3:16 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSASequoyah44 min
Mar 1, 3:17 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFCedar, Vernon43 min
Mar 1, 3:18 AM CSTTornado WarningTSALeFlore, Sequoyah27 min
Mar 1, 3:27 AM CSTTornado WarningTSACrawford, Sebastian48 min
Mar 1, 3:39 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarton36 min
Mar 1, 3:40 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton80 min
Mar 1, 3:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFLawrence62 min
Mar 1, 3:46 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFSt. Clair59 min
Mar 1, 3:47 AM CSTTornado WarningTSAFranklin58 min
Mar 1, 3:49 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFBarton, Cedar, Dade56 min
Mar 1, 3:50 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair13 min
Mar 1, 3:53 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFDade, Lawrence20 min
Mar 1, 4:01 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFGreene, Polk59 min
Mar 1, 4:03 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACarroll, Madison57 min
Mar 1, 4:05 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFBenton, Hickory55 min
Mar 1, 4:08 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSASebastian24 min
Mar 1, 4:13 AM CSTTornado WarningTSACarroll28 min
Mar 1, 4:20 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFChristian, Greene40 min
Mar 1, 4:22 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFPolk32 min
Mar 1, 4:24 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry36 min
Mar 1, 4:25 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Newton50 min
Mar 1, 4:28 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFStone, Taney62 min
Mar 1, 4:34 AM CSTTornado WarningLZKBoone18 min
Mar 1, 4:35 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFDallas39 min
Mar 1, 4:41 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFWebster64 min
Mar 1, 4:44 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAWashington21 min
Mar 1, 4:50 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAFranklin36 min
Mar 1, 4:51 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFLaclede54 min
Mar 1, 4:57 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFStone33 min
Mar 1, 5:07 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian38 min
Mar 1, 5:10 AM CSTTornado WarningLZKNewton50 min
Mar 1, 5:15 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFChristian15 min
Mar 1, 5:32 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFWebster43 min
Mar 1, 5:42 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFLaclede, Pulaski48 min
Mar 1, 5:58 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Pope32 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2007-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 283 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2007-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 148 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
283 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-105 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1189 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
243 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000
WWUS20 KWNS 010734
SEL1  
SPC WW 010734
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-011400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
       EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
       SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
       EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 135 AM UNTIL 800 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 36...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 38. WATCH NUMBER 36 38
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 135 AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 37...WW
39...WW 40...

DISCUSSION...POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM THE
RED RIVER NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO
INTENSIFYING FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION...LOW THROUGH MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. THUS...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS AND
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


...CARBIN/HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 1, 12:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Bradley, Chicot, Clay and 36 more2 hr
Mar 1, 3:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Cross and 18 more55 min
Mar 1, 3:58 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Faulkner and 18 more8 hr
Mar 1, 5:23 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 19 more97 min
Mar 1, 6:17 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 22 more7 hr
Mar 1, 6:54 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross, Lee, Phillips, St. Francis66 min
Mar 1, 7:28 AM CSTTornado Watch PDSSPCCrittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips, St. Francis12 hr
Feb 28, 6:11 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWyandotte94 min
Feb 28, 6:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson and 5 more7 hr
Feb 28, 6:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Linn, Miami85 min
Feb 28, 7:10 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBourbon, Linn, Miami7 hr
Feb 28, 7:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Cowley89 min
Feb 28, 9:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Crawford, Douglas, Franklin and 3 more87 min
Feb 28, 10:57 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Cowley, Elk93 min
Feb 28, 10:30 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Clark, Knox, Lewis, Marion, Monroe and 3 more90 min
Feb 28, 11:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Lewis, Lincoln, Marion, Monroe, Montgomery and 3 more57 min
Mar 1, 12:16 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Knox, Lewis, Lincoln and 7 more6 hr
Mar 1, 2:28 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Knox, Lewis and 8 more92 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2007Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2007Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2007Every tornado watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.