Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION WITH THE VERY
DYNAMIC STORM NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. NAM
INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BUT THE CENTER OF THE ACTUAL LOW LINES UP BETTER WITH THE
GFS. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT DOWN THE ROAD WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES THIS MORNING TO CLOSE TO SPLIT HAIRS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION.

ALL THE ACTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG STORM SYSTEM GETTING ITS ACT
TOGETHER IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SPRAWLING MID LEVEL TROF EASILY
IDENTIFIED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL...EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES CENTER OF THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS. LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AIDED BY STRONG SHORT WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTENSE MID LEVEL JET STREAK.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
WILL BE LOCATED OVER FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS AROUND 12Z. MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH TONGUE OF 55 DEGREE PLUS DEW POINT AIR EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST TO CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM
EXTENDING FROM KFSM TO KLIT TO KLLQ.

SMALL LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CWA AND ARE MOSTLY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN. DEEP CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT PRIMED
FOR CONVECTION WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FOR
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE
EASTERN HALF IN A MODERATE RISK.

FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER WILL END ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS
WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. WILL
CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL ALSO EXTEND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA.
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD RH LEVELS
DROP MORE THAN FORECAST.

ONCE SYSTEM CLEARS...PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND EASTERN CONUS TROFFING DEVELOPING.
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA INITIALLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FOR SATURDAY BUT ONLY CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO
END OUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DAYS ONE
AND TWO WITH ZONAL FLOW AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD DAYS THREE AND FOUR
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. BLENDED FWC/MAV NUMBERS THIS MORNING.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A RATHER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS OVER ARKANSAS
DURING THIS PERIOD. AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROF
AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT
DO MORE THAN SIMPLY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SURFACE HIGH
MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING MONDAY WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARM
UP.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  37  58  32 /  60   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         68  40  69  37 /  50   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       57  32  54  29 /  40   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  39  67  35 /  40   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  39  66  35 /  50   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  42  69  38 /  60   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      63  38  66  35 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  33  54  29 /  50   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        65  38  60  33 /  60   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     68  41  68  37 /  50   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  37  61  33 /  40   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         65  39  63  34 /  60   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      67  41  67  36 /  60   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CALHOUN-CLARK-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...38

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