Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 1, 2007Adair County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 1, 2007, 3:50 AM CST for Adair County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 13 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 1, 2007, 3:50 AM CST (09:50 UTC)
Expired: Mar 1, 2007, 4:03 AM CST
In force: 13 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Adair County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 1, 1:32 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 283 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -105 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1189 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 148 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 243 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 010950
SVRTSA
OKC001-011015-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0018.070301T0950Z-070301T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 415 AM CST

* AT 349 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
  AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF WATTS TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  WATTS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WATTS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3618 9466 3598 9478 3605 9454 3620 9454

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 011003
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
404 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

OKC001-011014-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-070301T1015Z/
ADAIR OK-
404 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ADAIR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3618 9466 3598 9478 3605 9454 3620 9454

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 1, 1:59 AM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 1:59 AM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
159 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING AND ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THE PACE EASTWARD AND CLEAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MID
MORNING. WIND PROFILES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING UPON
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT WITH LATE DAY CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS AIDING ANY
AFTERNOON WARMING.

PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WHICH
DEVELOPS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND FULL SUN WILL ALLOW FRIDAY TO WARM
NICELY...WITH A SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES TRANSITIONING TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK...AND SIDED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTIONS.
SHOULD THESE FRONTS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THAN TEMPERATURES BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY RETURN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE
PERSISTENT PROVIDING INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  36  58  30 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   58  34  62  31 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   57  32  61  31 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   53  32  60  28 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   53  30  55  26 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   54  31  54  27 /  30   0   0   0
MKO   53  31  59  30 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   50  32  53  26 /  10   0   0   0
F10   54  33  60  31 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   59  36  64  36 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....07

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 1, 12:53 AM CST, 2 hours 57 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1253 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1253 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS (NON THUNDERSTORM).
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED
        AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO NEAR STILLWATER OKLAHOMA AND BACK OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
UNSTABLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS THE WIND PROFILES
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END BY MID-
MORNING THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS 15
TO 25 MPH AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 1, 2:41 AM CST, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N PRYOR               36.40N 95.32W
03/01/2007                   MAYES              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            4 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

NMK

Special weather statement, Mar 1, 2:44 AM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

OKZ069-010930-
ADAIR OK-
244 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 244 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BUNCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STILWELL...BUNCH AND
MARIETTA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Local storm report, Mar 1, 2:49 AM CST, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     HAIL             1 N PRYOR               36.32N 95.32W
03/01/2007  E0.88 INCH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFP

Local storm report, Mar 1, 3:39 AM CST, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 AM     HAIL             FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
03/01/2007  E0.88 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NMK

Local storm report, Mar 1, 3:42 AM CST, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
342 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 AM     HAIL             FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
03/01/2007  E1.00 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NMK

Local storm report, Mar 1, 3:45 AM CST, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 AM     HAIL             VAN BUREN               35.44N 94.35W
03/01/2007  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NMK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 1, 12:35 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	55 min
Mar 1, 1:00 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Tulsa	60 min
Mar 1, 2:05 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Wagoner	24 min
Mar 1, 2:09 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pittsburg	36 min
Mar 1, 2:15 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes	60 min
Mar 1, 2:24 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sequoyah	30 min
Mar 1, 2:43 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Wagoner	32 min
Mar 1, 2:47 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware	58 min
Mar 1, 2:57 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell	28 min
Mar 1, 2:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	61 min
Mar 1, 3:00 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair	45 min
Mar 1, 3:16 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sequoyah	44 min
Mar 1, 3:18 AM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	LeFlore, Sequoyah	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.