Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION AND CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.CURRENTLY...ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY ALL CONVECTION ON RADAR IS OFF TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK CAP AT 18Z
AT AROUND 3500 FEET. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THIS CAP SHOULD BREAK
HERE SHORTLY. WRF KEEPS LOW LEVEL CINS AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 21Z BEFORE WIPING OUT
ALTOGETHER AFTER THAT TIME ALLOWING FOR FREE CONVECTION TO BEGIN.
HAD AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ACTUALLY
SWITCHED OUR WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST BOTH HERE AND OUT JOPLIN FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ATMOSPHERE REALLY JUICED UP DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH DEWPOINTS AT 19Z IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S JUST ACROSS THE MISSOURI BORDER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. NOT MUCH BY WAY OF LLVL JET THIS AFTERNOON. AS
BOTH NDSK AND CNWN 850MB WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 15KTS. DO NOT THINK
TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY...HOWEVER...SLOW MOVEMENT
OF STORMS WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. WBZ HEIGHT FAVORABLE AS WELL
FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTERACT WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC QPFS SHOWING WELL OVER AN INCH 6
HOURLY QPF THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROUGH PUSHES INTO EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. WILL ISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND THEN A
SEPARATE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL ZONES MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE GENERALLY SEE
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CUT OFF POPS
AFTER THAT TIME.

GCC

LONG RANGE...(WED - NEXT WEEKEND)

BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
NORTH SOUTH ORIENTATED UPPER RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.  PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TO BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THEN STALL AND WEAKEN.  PWS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2
INCHES SO A FEW DAILY STORMS POSSIBLE...THOUGH H8 THETA E AXIS
REMAINS WEST OF SGF FORECAST AREA WITH CORFIDI VECTORS SHOWING
LITTLE EXPECT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF ANY COMPLEXES...SO HAVE REDUCED
POPS TO 30S OVER THE WEST TO 20S EAST WED-THU MORNING AND 20 POPS OR
LESS THERE AFTER AS SYSTEM FAILS TO PUNCH ITS WAY INTO THE RIDGE.

MID WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL FIND THEMSELVES IN A SOMEWHAT RARE
SITUATION IN WHICH READINGS WILL BE COOLER TO THE WEST DUE TO CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE TSRA...THEN CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARM REGION WIDE LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEK END.

RUNNELS

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH AIRFIELDS. HEAVIER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING THAT WILL DROP CONDITIONS
TO MVFR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
112 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
112 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
 MISSOURI BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
 THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 A WEAK THERMAL CAP IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND AIR HAS BECOME STABILIZED BY THIS
 MORNINGS CONVECTION. THIS AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH VARIOUS
 OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. AS DAYTIME HEATING
 OCCURS...THIS AIRMASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY MID
 AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...AND SOME OF THEM
 WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS
 WILL BE DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS...HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MORE
 SEVERE STORMS MAY HAVE LARGE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
 FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
 OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS THROUGH NEXT
 SATURDAY. A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
 MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS
 ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
 NATURE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DOWN BURST WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE
 RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF THE
 REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
947 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SYRACUSE                38.67N 92.87W
06/10/2007                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 5 NORTH OF SYRACUSE HAD WATER FLOWING OVER IT.
            STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN VERSAILLES.

&&

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

MOZ102-103-102030-
STONE MO-BARRY MO-
229 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARRY AND STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

AT 225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF CASSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.  PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...WITH LARGER HAIL POSSIBLE SHOULD THIS STORM CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER BARRY AND STONE
COUNTIES.

RESIDENTS ACROSS BARRY AND STONE COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AS THE STORMS APPROACH.

RUNNELS