Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALIGNED
NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AND LINEAR MCS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS HAVE MERGED JUST WEST OF WICHITA. LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE MERGER...THOUGH CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT
AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT TO THE MCS CAN BE EXPECTED. 30-40KT
LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE MCS AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 250MB JET PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LIFT AND CONVECTIVE SUPPORT.
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI IN RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WEST
OF A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE LOWEST 5KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE MCS MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE OZARKS
THIS MORNING THE NEAR TROPICAL AIRMASS NOW TAKING ROOT IN THE AREA
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WERE THE CHALLENGE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AS NOTED BY LOW 70 DEW POINTS
AT JOPLIN WITH UPPER 60 DEW POINTS AROUND SPRINGFIELD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION OVER AND AROUND THE BOSTON
MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH 70 DEW POINTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE...
AFTERNOON MODEL MLCAPES OF 1800-2800 J/KG AND 20-30 KNOTS OF BULK
SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FREELY CONVECT WHICH IS TYPICAL IN A
SUMMERTIME PULSE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS AND LLJ...EXPECT SOME STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. CLIMATOLOGICAL SEVERE MODE IN
SUMMER INDICATES THAT WIND THREAT WOULD BE OF THE GREATEST CONCERN.
THERE IS NO CAP TO SPEAK OF NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS LOOK IDEAL TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT GROWTH.
PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.50 INCHES ALSO INDICATE THAT BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.

AFTER TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSES THE BUILDING RIDGE AND PROVIDES
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SHOT A PRECIPITATION. THIS RATHER STAGNANT
AND PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE NEAR TROPICAL WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

WITH THE INITIALIZATION ISSUE OF THE GFS AND WRF FOR AND THE WAY
OVERDONE PRECIPITATION AND QPF AM CONCERNED WITH THE DIFFERENCES
LATER IN THE WEEK BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS
DID NOT REALLY TOUCH THE FORECAST PAST MID WEEK HOPING FOR MORE
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL IN LATER RUNS. WITH THAT SAID CUT OFF LOW
OVER SOUTHER CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE WEEK. THIS WOULD
BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH AIRFIELDS. HEAVIER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING THAT WILL DROP CONDITIONS
TO MVFR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
112 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
112 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
 MISSOURI BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
 THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 A WEAK THERMAL CAP IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND AIR HAS BECOME STABILIZED BY THIS
 MORNINGS CONVECTION. THIS AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH VARIOUS
 OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. AS DAYTIME HEATING
 OCCURS...THIS AIRMASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY MID
 AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...AND SOME OF THEM
 WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS
 WILL BE DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS...HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MORE
 SEVERE STORMS MAY HAVE LARGE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
 FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
 OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS THROUGH NEXT
 SATURDAY. A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
 MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS
 ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
 NATURE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DOWN BURST WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE
 RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF THE
 REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
941 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N SYRACUSE            38.68N 92.87W
06/10/2007                   COOPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 5 NORTH OF SYRACUSE HAD WATER FLOWING OVER IT.
            STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN VERSAILLES.

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FULTON                  38.01N 94.72W
06/10/2007                   BOURBON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS WERE REPORTED FLOODED IN NORTHERN
            BOURBON COUNTY. A LOCAL OBSERVER REPORTED 3.40 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
947 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SYRACUSE                38.67N 92.87W
06/10/2007                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 5 NORTH OF SYRACUSE HAD WATER FLOWING OVER IT.
            STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN VERSAILLES.

&&

JLT