Flash Flood Warning 107, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
FORM OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MISSOURI ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS. THIS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY AREA PERSISTS
OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST INTO MCDONALD COUNTY. AREA MOVING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO COUNTIES UNDER THE AREA BEFORE RAINING ITSELF OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SHOULD BE
OK THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER UPPER VORT
SEEN OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT HAD ME A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...LOW HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL KANSAS...SO THINK THE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT WILL BE SHIFTED WEST OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER DIFFLUENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS CONVERGENT AREA PUSHES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND FLASH FLOODING/AREAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CWA...KEEPING US DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...MAKING FOR VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE
AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND HAVE
KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY ON...CONVERGENT LINE APPROACHES EASTERN KANSAS ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. GFS SHOWING UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ISSUED ESF TO COVER HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON AN AFTERNOON
BASIS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER
OVER OKLAHOMA AND SPINS OFF LITTLE POCKETS OF ENERGY INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT AS A STRONGER ENERGY POCKET GETS SPUN
OFF THE LOW. GFS SHOWING LOW KICKING OUT FINALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT MONDAY EVENING AS A 100KT JET DIVES
SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
ISSUE STRONGER STATEMENTS ONCE WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

GCC
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SATELLITE SHOWING SOME WARMING THUNDERSTORM TOPS
OVER WESTERN MISSOURI/SE KANSAS AND RADAR HAS TRENDED TO MORE
DIMINISHING ECHOES.  HAVE GONE WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO
START THE 18Z TAF CYCLE IN JLN IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  SGF SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE PLAINS BUT
EXPECTING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING...
  WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A
  LINE FROM BRANSON TO CARTHAGE TO PITTSBURG KANSAS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  WEAKENING ACROSS THIS AREA...HOWEVER...STORMS CONTINUE TO
  PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. RUNOFF
  FLOODING FROM ALL OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
  THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS THROUGH
  SATURDAY. A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS
  ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
  NATURE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
  GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
  SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY FURTHER FLOOD REPORTS TO
  LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
150 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
06/12/2007                   NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN NEOSHO.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW RED OAK            37.28N 94.08W
06/12/2007                   JASPER             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY AA FLOODED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NN.

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
201 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     FLASH FLOOD      AVILLA                  37.20N 94.13W
06/12/2007                   JASPER             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODING REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 37 BETWEEN N AND E.

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PINEVILLE               36.59N 94.38W
06/12/2007                   MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BIG SUGAR ROAD EAST OF PINEVILLE...BEEMAN HOLLOW ROAD
            WEST OF ANDERSON AND SPLIT LOG ROAD BETWEEN ANDERSON AND
            GOODMAN WERE FLOODED.

0226 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SENECA                  36.84N 94.61W
06/12/2007                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS CITY AND SECONDARY ROADS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY
            WERE FLOODED. FLOOD WATERS IN NEOSHO WERE RECEDING.

&&

SRUNNELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

KSZ101-122300-
CHEROKEE KS-
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SPRING RIVER NEAR RIVERTON AND BAXTER
SPRINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING...

UNUSUAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FOR
AREAS OF CHEROKEE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SPRING RIVER
BASIN...SOUTH OF THE WACO RIVER GAGE...WITHIN EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE COUNTY.

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SPRING RIVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COMMUNITIES OF RIVERTON AND BAXTER SPRINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RISING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERAL TRIBUTARIES THAT FLOW INTO THE SPRING RIVER IN SOUTHEAST
CHEROKEE COUNTY ARE EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.  THESE
TRIBUTARIES INCLUDE SHOAL CREEK...CENTER CREEK...COW CREEK...SHORT
CREEK...BRUSH CREEK...TURKEY CREEK...AND SHAWNEE CREEK.  AS THIS
FLOOD WATER CONVERGES NEAR THE BAXTER SPRINGS AND RIVERTON
AREAS...ADDITIONAL RISES IN THE SPRING RIVER WILL OCCUR...AND MAY
CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING TO LOW AREAS NEAR THE RIVER.

THE SPRING RIVER NEAR WACO MISSOURI HAS CRESTED AND WILL EXPERIENCE
A GRADUAL FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SEVERAL FLOODED TRIBUTARIES AND CREEKS CONVERGE INTO THE SPRING
RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM FROM WACO...THE SPRING RIVER NEAR BAXTER
SPRINGS AND RIVERTON WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE SPRING RIVER IN SOUTHEAST CHEROKEE COUNTY SHOULD
TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AND THEIR PROPERTY
FROM THE ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N SPARTA              37.07N 93.08W
06/12/2007                   CHRISTIAN          MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A WATER RESCUE IS IN PROGRESS ON THE FINLEY CREEK...NORTH
            OF SPARTA ON REED ROAD.

&&

JLT