Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
518 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG A BOUNDARY LEFT FROM THE STORMS MONDAY ARE BEING
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 3-5 INCHES HAVING FALLEN SO FAR. OF SOME CONCERN IS
THAT 0-3KM MUCAPES OVERNIGHT REMAINED IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE IN
THE AREA OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS INSTABILITY IS
BEING AIDED BY A WEAK BUT PRESENT LLJ AROUND 15KTS AND WAA NOTED AT
925MB. WHILE THE LLJ WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE WAA
SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SUN COMES UP WITH CAPES INCREASING TO AROUND
2000J/KG. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING INTO THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MO/KS STATE LINE. THE GREATEST THREAT
WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED FLOODING RAINS THE PAST 48 HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../246 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007/

ISOLATED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG ONE OF SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE OZARKS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN ARM OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET LOOK LIKE THEY ARE AIDING IN SUSTAINING THIS CONVECTION. SHOULD
SEE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO AROUND DAWN WHEN THE LLJ WEAKENS AND
THE WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN THE MID LEVELS SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE
REGION. WITH THIS SAID...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...BUT
JUST ABOUT ANY PLACE IS PRONE TO SEEING A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AS DAY TIME HEATING AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES IMPACT
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2000J/KG WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER TODAY REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THEN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.

GFS/ECMWF/WRF-NAM HAVE ALL BEEN DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH THE
FORECAST TO THIS POINT. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY THE SAME PLACE INTO FRIDAY AS
THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST DEEPENS AND LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE DURING THE
WEEKEND. BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN
PLACE WHICH HELPS KEEP THE RIDGE IN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY RIDE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE DURING THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST....AS NOTED BY THE GFS. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME
WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SADLY...THESE ARE THE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RECORD RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS AND COULD DO
WITH A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS AT THIS POINT
WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT FLOODING.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...PRELIM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
LIGHT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHRA
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY.

A FEW ELONGATED BANDS OF ISOLATED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING.
THIS FIRST WELL EAST OF THE TAF SITES...AND THE SECOND DEVELOPING
BETWEEN JLN AND SGF. THESE SHRA ARE VERY SMALL AND THE CHANCES OF
OBSERVING RAINFALL AT ANY SITE WILL BE LOW. A LITTLE BETTER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH JLN AND SGF IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING LENDS TO BETTER
INSTABILITY.

BKN STRATUS DECK IN THE 4-5KFT RANGE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE AREA
THUS FAR THIS EVENING. CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AND VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN EXPECTED SE FLOW OF 5-10KTS ONLY LIGHT FOG IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STRATUS MAY BUILD DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
AND WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION CLOSE TO TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY
VFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISO SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
602 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  HEAVY RAINFALL...
  ISOLATED DOWN BURST WIND GUST TO 60 MPH AND
  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
  THIS AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
  ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. WIDESPREAD
  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF A
  VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES LEFT
  OVER FROM ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING...MAY PRODUCE AN
  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS
  WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...DOWN
  BURST WINDS TO 60 MPH AND UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS THROUGH
  SATURDAY. A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS
  ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
  NATURE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
  GUSTY DOWN BURST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
  SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY FURTHER FLOOD REPORTS TO
  LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENFIELD              37.42N 93.84W
06/12/2007                   DADE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4-5 INCHES OF WATER WAS OVER HIGHWAY 160 IN GREENFIELD.
            160 HIGHWAY AND COLLEGE IN GREENFIELD HAD 8 INCHES OF
            WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY.

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S SPRINGFIELD         37.18N 93.29W
06/11/2007                   GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROADS 123 AND 146 ALONG
            WILSONS GREEK WERE FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E MILFORD             37.58N 94.12W
06/12/2007                   BARTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            C HIGHWAY WAS WATER COVERED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S PLEASANT HOPE       37.42N 93.27W
06/12/2007                   GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS ARE WATER COVERED AND IMPASSABLE ACROSS
            THE COUNTY. ROADS CLOSED INCLUDE...HIGHWAY H NEAR
            PLEASANT HOPE...150TH STREET ALONG LINN CREEK...455TH
            STREET WEST OF THE SILO RIDGE GOLF COURSE AND 559TH
            STREET BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH HIGHWAY 13.

&&

HATCH