Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. RADAR SHOWING MOST CONVECTION PUSHING SOUTH TO
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING NICELY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...APPROACHING 80 IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
OUT THAT WAY IN THE LOW 70S. INHIBITING FACTOR IS LOW CLOUD COVER.
ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SHOOT TEMPERATURES UP AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO BEGIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THAT MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION.

THIS EVENING...MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWING 4500J/KG. WRF KEEPING HIGHEST CAPES OUT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW IS YIELDING BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO GET GOING OUT THAT WAY MOST LIKELY WOULD BE SEVERE. BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER
LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE THE LACK OF A STRONG LLVL JET. BUT WITH
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...BELIEVE
FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL BE IN PLACE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALL DEPENDS ON CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY ON...MISSOURI ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK.

GCC

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE JOPLIN TERMINAL WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CALM WINDS AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AROUND 3 MILES THROUGH SUNRISE.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
800 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN BE
  EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL
  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

  ELSEWHERE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN RATHER WORKED OVER FROM
  RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LAST NIGHT. A VERY
  MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SUPPORT
  FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT. SEVERE
  WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
  EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS THROUGH
  NEXT SATURDAY. A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSTABLE AND
  HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
  IN NATURE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
  GUSTY DOWN BURST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
  SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY FURTHER FLOOD REPORTS TO
  LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB/GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENFIELD              37.42N 93.84W
06/12/2007                   DADE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4-5 INCHES OF WATER WAS OVER HIGHWAY 160 IN GREENFIELD.
            160 HIGHWAY AND COLLEGE IN GREENFIELD HAD 8 INCHES OF
            WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY.

&&

WISE