Flash Flood Warning 106, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG A BOUNDARY LEFT FROM THE STORMS MONDAY ARE BEING
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 3-5 INCHES HAVING FALLEN SO FAR. OF SOME CONCERN IS
THAT 0-3KM MUCAPES OVERNIGHT REMAINED IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE IN
THE AREA OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS INSTABILITY IS
BEING AIDED BY A WEAK BUT PRESENT LLJ AROUND 15KTS AND WAA NOTED AT
925MB. WHILE THE LLJ WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE WAA
SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SUN COMES UP WITH CAPES INCREASING TO AROUND
2000J/KG. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING INTO THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MO/KS STATE LINE. THE GREATEST THREAT
WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED FLOODING RAINS THE PAST 48 HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../246 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007/

ISOLATED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG ONE OF SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE OZARKS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN ARM OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET LOOK LIKE THEY ARE AIDING IN SUSTAINING THIS CONVECTION. SHOULD
SEE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO AROUND DAWN WHEN THE LLJ WEAKENS AND
THE WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN THE MID LEVELS SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE
REGION. WITH THIS SAID...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...BUT
JUST ABOUT ANY PLACE IS PRONE TO SEEING A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AS DAY TIME HEATING AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES IMPACT
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2000J/KG WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER TODAY REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THEN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.

GFS/ECMWF/WRF-NAM HAVE ALL BEEN DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH THE
FORECAST TO THIS POINT. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY THE SAME PLACE INTO FRIDAY AS
THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST DEEPENS AND LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE DURING THE
WEEKEND. BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN
PLACE WHICH HELPS KEEP THE RIDGE IN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY RIDE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE DURING THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST....AS NOTED BY THE GFS. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME
WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SADLY...THESE ARE THE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RECORD RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS AND COULD DO
WITH A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS AT THIS POINT
WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT FLOODING.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SATELLITE SHOWING SOME WARMING THUNDERSTORM TOPS
OVER WESTERN MISSOURI/SE KANSAS AND RADAR HAS TRENDED TO MORE
DIMINISHING ECHOES.  HAVE GONE WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO
START THE 18Z TAF CYCLE IN JLN IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMANANT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  SGF SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE PLAINS BUT
EXPECTING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING...
  WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A
  LINE FROM BRANSON TO CARTHAGE TO PITTSBURG KANSAS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  WEAKENING ACROSS THIS AREA...HOWEVER...STORMS CONTINUE TO
  PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. RUNOFF
  FLOODING FROM ALL OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
  THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS THROUGH
  SATURDAY. A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS
  ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
  NATURE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
  GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
  SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY FURTHER FLOOD REPORTS TO
  LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
939 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PITTSBURG               37.41N 94.70W
06/12/2007                   CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CITY STREETS, INCLUDING FORD AND BROADWAY, FLOODED.

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
942 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW DOGWOOD            37.09N 92.89W
06/12/2007                   WEBSTER            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            Z HIGHWAY FLOODED AT FOX FORD AND BLACKBERRY. SEVEN FOOT
            CULVERT WASHED OUT ON BLACKBERRY. MEASURED RAINFALL
            EXCEEDING 6 INCHES.

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      STOTTS CITY             37.10N 93.95W
06/12/2007                   LAWRENCE           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 97 FLOODED SOUTHWARD TO HIGHWAY 60.

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SE JASPER             37.26N 94.21W
06/12/2007                   JASPER             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY N BETWEEN HIGHWAY 71 AND MISSOURI 37

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 NE MILLER             37.30N 93.74W
06/12/2007                   DADE               MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            INTERSECTION OF DD AND M

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ALBA                    37.24N 94.42W
06/12/2007                   JASPER             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY O FLOODED BETWEEN 96 AND H

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARL JUNCTION           37.18N 94.57W
06/12/2007                   JASPER             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CENTER CREEK FLOODING ROUTE JJ BETWEEN HIGHWAY Z TO P

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JASPER                  37.34N 94.30W
06/12/2007                   JASPER             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE H FROM JASPER TO 43 HIGHWAY

0752 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EUDORA                  37.48N 93.54W
06/12/2007                   POLK               MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY W FLOODED BETWEEN EUDORA AND DADEVILLE.

0752 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AVA                     36.95N 92.66W
06/12/2007                   DOUGLAS            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY Y FLOODED

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAMAR                   37.49N 94.28W
06/12/2007                   BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            APARTMENT COMPLEX AND HOUSES BEING EVACUATED IN LAMAR.
            BOTH HIGHWAY 160 AND FIRST STREET ARE CLOSED.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1046 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S FORDLAND            37.10N 92.94W
06/12/2007                   WEBSTER            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEAR HIGHWAY Z AND OLGA ROAD... MAN REPORTED MISSING WITH
            A HOUSE UNDERWATER.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FORDLAND                37.16N 92.94W
06/12/2007                   WEBSTER            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PANTHER CREEK AT NORTH IRON MOUNTAIN ROAD. WATER 6-8 FT.
            DEEP.

&&

SRUNNELS