Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
EARLY TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL NEED TO BE BRIEF TODAY DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. LINE OF
VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
MS RIVER AND THROUGH WRN KY AND SW IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT.

ONCE THIS LINE OF CONVECTION PASSES...SHOULD SEE DRY SLOT/BRIEF
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCE SOME SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...AND THE AIRMASS
WILL DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY AS A SURFACE FRONT WORKS INTO SE MO AROUND
MID AFTERNOON. WITH NEXT H50 SHORT WAVE WORKING EAST AT THE SAME
TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE AROUND MID AFTERNOON  JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN SE MO. SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AS THE STORMS MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER WITH MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH SLIGHT RISK WEST OF THE MS RVR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES AND SHEAR...EXPECT A VERY GOOD
CHC OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THINK THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND STRATUS CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER
LOW PASSAGE OVER THE MUCH OF THE REGION...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF ENERGY IN THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOTIVATE A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE FOUR STATE REGION
BY 12Z. THE SPEED OF THE STORMS WAS 50 TO 60 MPH...BRINGING THESE
WIND SPEEDS TO THE SFC JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS...RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM ABOUT 3 KFT
AND UP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WINDS AT
THE SFC WILL BE GUSTING ABOVE 25 KT ACROSS THE AREA. BY AROUND LATE
AFTN...MORE POSSIBLY SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT EAST OF THE MS
RIVER JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MEFFERT/DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1224 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-190530-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1224 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
OVERNIGHT...AND AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY AROUND SUNRISE.
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY THURSDAY. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IF
THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A SERIOUS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE QUAD
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE REQUESTED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE...AND AGAIN LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

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