Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 140216
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
916 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

MNC153-140226-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-070814T0245Z/
TODD MN-
916 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN TODD COUNTY IS 
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4577 9463 4567 9494 4541 9410 4577 9428

$$

MNC145-140245-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-070814T0245Z/
STEARNS MN-
916 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR STEARNS COUNTY...

AT 912 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OPOLE TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NEW MUNICH...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE OPOLE...COLLEGEVILLE...WAITE
PARK...ST STEPHEN...ST ROSA...ST JOSEPH...ST CLOUD...PLEASANT LAKE...
NEW MUNICH AND MELROSE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4577 9463 4567 9494 4541 9410 4577 9428

$$

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 140233
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
934 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

MNC145-140245-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-070814T0245Z/
STEARNS MN-
934 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR STEARNS COUNTY...

AT 929 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AVON...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ST AUGUSTA...OPOLE...
LUXEMBURG...FARMING...COLLEGEVILLE...WAITE PARK...ST STEPHEN...ST
MARTIN...ST JOSEPH AND ROCKVILLE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4574 9444 4551 9482 4537 9412 4577 9428

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
805 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

ISSUED 241 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...
STILL TRICKY FORECAST TO INITIATION THIS EVENING. BEST PRESSURE
FALLS NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT AN
EXTENSION INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
+12-14 C ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN MN. WE STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF THE
BEST LI GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MN
AND POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS AND THEN CRASHING/DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE WEAK SB CIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AREA...BUT DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE CONV SEEN
ON LAST COUPLE HOURS OF LAPS...CONCENTRATING OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING AS YET IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MN. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR A TORNADO
RISK.

WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES. COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF TOMORROW...BUT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TO
GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH IN THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING THESE STORMS.

THE ONLY DEFINITIVELY DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER THE TONIGHT PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS A FAIRLY LARGE PART OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...SO HAVE CONCEDED WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE GRIDS...KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST PERIOD OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.  ...KAT...

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS TONIGHT...IS TRYING TO TIME THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION(THUNDERSTORMS). CAP STILL FAIRLY
STRONG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY
THIS EVENING. NEW CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS...EXPECT
NUMEROUS TSRA TO DEVELOP OR INITIATE OVER MUCH OF THE TAFS SITES.
TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM.  CU FIELD OVR SE MN
INTO ERN IA...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWEST OVER CNTRL MN. CDFNT
FCST TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY EARLY TUESDAY MRNG.
SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE CDFNT.  WILDFIRES OVR IDAHO...WILL BRING
THE SMOKE ALOFT OVR MN AND WI LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
444 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
140945-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
444 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS STORMS DEVELOP
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. AS THIS LINE DEVELOPS THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BECOME DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

STAY ALERT FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

MDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
827 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

MNZ053-059>063-068>070-140330-
ANOKA-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT-
827 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

...VERY DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS HEADED FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO
AREA BY 1030 PM CDT...

AT 826 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF VERY DANGEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MORA TO 8 MILES EAST OF PRINCETON TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
FOLEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE FROM BRAINERD...TO LITTLE FALLS...AND MILACA.
RESIDENTS OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS TO
THE EAST OF 494 LOOP IN THE WEST METRO...SHOULD PREPARE FOR WARNINGS
BEFORE 1030 PM CDT.

MOVE INDOORS AND FIND A PLACE OF SAFETY IMMEDIATELY...AS WARNINGS
ARE IMMINENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
828 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HAIL             RONNEBY                 45.68N 93.87W
08/13/2007  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
830 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             4 SE ROYALTON           45.79N 94.23W
08/13/2007  E0.75 INCH       BENTON             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
835 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             MILACA                  45.76N 93.65W
08/13/2007  E0.88 INCH       MILLE LACS         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND OF 50-60 MPH.

&&

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
844 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N ONAMIA              46.10N 93.67W
08/13/2007                   MILLE LACS         MN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREES DOWN ON HWY. 169.

&&

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
846 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             1 N FOLEY               45.68N 93.91W
08/13/2007  E1.75 INCH       BENTON             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCS