Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 222337
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
637 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIC049-065-230000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-070823T0000Z/
IOWA-LAFAYETTE-
637 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA COUNTIES...

AT 637 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLANCHARDVILLE... 
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE 
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY 
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4290 9004 4274 9005 4269 8984 4293 8983

$$

BORGHOFF

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 222348
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
648 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIC049-065-222358-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-070823T0000Z/
IOWA-LAFAYETTE-
648 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE AND
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THESE 
COUNTIES...THEREFORE THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

REPORT WIND DAMAGE TO COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT...THEY WILL RELAY YOUR 
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4290 9004 4274 9005 4269 8984 4293 8983

$$

BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
200 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...CONCERN REMAINS WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTION UPSTREAM
ACROSS NRN/WRN IA FINGERING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WK SFC BNDRY EXTENDS FM NE WI INTO NE
IA...BUT THIS IS TOUGH TO DEFINE GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND DISTURBED
ATMOSPHERE FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
HANDLING THIS EARLY CONVECTION VERY DIFFERENTLY. NAM SHOWS IT
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z INTO 12Z. WHILE THE GFS
PUSHES IT MOSTLY ENE WITH TIME...RIGHT INTO THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. THE GFS SOLUTION IS ALREADY LOOKING LIKE A BETTER FIT WITH
REALITY. HPC QPF FIELDS ARE FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE GFS AS WELL.
SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN NW OF MADISON...AN AREA THAT CAN/T
AFFORD MUCH MORE RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE SE CWA IS SOAKED AND
IF THE COLD POOL WITH THAT CONVECTION ORGANIZES A BIT MORE...THAT
COLD POOL INFLUENCE AND THE MEAN STEERING CURRENTS WOULD TAKE THAT
CONVECTION ON A MORE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY...INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. RIVERS IN THE SE ARE VERY HIGH. MANY REPORTS
OF STANDING WATER. A SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. THUS
THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE WATCH.

SOME S/W ENERGY APPEARS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SW AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND THU...SOMEWHAT ENERGIZED BY A DIGGING TROUGH
NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. THE NAM LOOKS TO OVER DEVELOP
THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS...AGAIN...IS LOOKING BETTER. THE NAM HAS
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG H8 LLV JET IN EXCESS OF 60KTS ACROSS KS BY
12Z THU AND PUSHES IT OVER THE CWA BY OOZ. I PREFER THE MORE
RESERVED SOLUTION OF THE GFS...STILL 40KTS...BUT POINTING A BIT
MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THAN THE NAM. SINCE THE NAM HAS BEEN
STRONGLY BIASED WITH A TOO FAR NORTH SOUTION TO THE QPF AND
FORCING FIELDS THIS SUMMER...IT OFFERS SUPPORT FOR FOLLOWING THE
GFS. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK SINCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL
NORTH ACROSS WI. BUT THE LLV ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE. THE
LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT LOCATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD
SPELL MORE RAIN FOR THU INTO THU NGT.

THE FRONT MOVES LITTLE IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW AS YET ANOTHER SFC
LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.  MORE RAIN.

SO OUR THREAT FOR MORE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS
IS VERY HIGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVES UP THE SFC FRONT IN A SW
FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDING OR RE-ISSUING THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES AS WE GAIN MORE CLARITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM.

A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH. COULD BE DRY INTO MONDAY. INTERESTING ANALYSIS OF THE GFS
FOR TUE SHOWS THAT IT/S PROGGED QPF FOR US ON TUE/TUE NIGHT MAY
BE THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DEAN. A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN THAT ONE
DOWN FOR SURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS NRN IA MCS AND HOW IT WILL
EVOLVE TO AFFECT SRN WI THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THE MCS ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TNGT AND LOWER CIGS A BIT.
NAM MOS HINTS AT MVFR CIGS IN MSN WHILE GUID UNANIMOUS WITH VFR CIGS
IN MKE. WILL NEVERTHELESS HINT AT LOWER CIGS WITH THE CONVECTION BUT
FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THINGS VFR. BUFKIT AND LLVL RH PROGS IMPLY
SUSTAINED LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MKE AND MSN WITH
THE PSBL BRIEF DROP DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION
LATER TNGT AND ERLY THU MRNG. WILL ALSO CARRY MVFR BR LATER TNGT AND
HAVE MVFR VSBYS WITH THE STORMS...THO IFR VSBYS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ056>060-062>072.

&&

DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
627 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-231000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
627 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL AGGRAVATE ANY EXISTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY REACH AROUND 95 DEGREES AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-231000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
627 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
556 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW WAUKESHA          43.02N 88.26W
08/22/2007                   WAUKESHA           WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLASH FLOODING IN STREETS WITH WATER OVER CURBS NEAR
            WAUKESHA NORTH HIGH SCHOOL. REPORTED BY WAUKESHA
            POLICE/FIRE/911 DISPATCH.

&&

CRAVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
558 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RICHFIELD               43.26N 88.19W
08/22/2007                   WASHINGTON         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER AT INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY P AND HIGHWAY 145

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
559 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW WEST BEND          43.41N 88.20W
08/22/2007                   WASHINGTON         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.6 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED IN 71 MINUTES. PONDING OF
            WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

CRAVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
617 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREENDALE               42.94N 88.00W
08/22/2007  E60.00 MPH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES BENT OVER AND SMALL OBJECTS THROWN ABOUT.

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENDALE               42.94N 88.00W
08/22/2007                   MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            URBAN FLOODING WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/10 MILE DURING
            TORRENTIAL RAINS. WATER FLOWING OVER CURBS.

&&

CRAVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
621 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W SHOREWOOD           43.09N 87.91W
08/22/2007                   MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN. TREES ARE 8 TO 10 INCH DIA.

0603 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S WAUKESHA            42.98N 88.24W
08/22/2007                   WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER ROAD. 12 INCHES DEEP ON WEST AVENUE AT HIGHWAY
            59

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
627 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND MILWAUKEE MARINE(GLERL) 43.05N 87.88W
08/22/2007  M43 MPH          MILWAUKEE          WI   OTHER FEDERAL

            MEASURED GUST TO 36.7 KNOTS

&&

CRAVEN