Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 220646
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
144 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIC027-220730-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-070822T0730Z/
DODGE-
144 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR DODGE COUNTY...

AT 138 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERLIN TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
WAUPUN TO BEAVER DAM TO MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHWOOD...JUNEAU AND HORICON BY 150 AM CDT...
  KNOWLES...MAYVILLE AND KEKOSKEE BY 155 AM CDT...
  LEBANON AND LOMIRA BY 200 AM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING 
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS 
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR 
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4362 8900 4363 8897 4363 8861 4362 8859
      4362 8840 4345 8840 4337 8843 4321 8842
      4321 8900

$$

REM

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 220731
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
231 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIC027-220734-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-070822T0730Z/
DODGE-
231 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DODGE COUNTY EXPIRED AT 230 AM
CDT...

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR DODGE COUNTY 
HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVER LEVELS AND MOVED EAST OF DODGE COUNTY. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4362 8900 4363 8897 4363 8861 4362 8859
      4362 8840 4345 8840 4337 8843 4321 8842
      4321 8900

$$

REM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION PORTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
410 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...
...WET PERIOD TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...

RIVERS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD
CAUSE SERIOUS PROBLEMS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHING NORTH
AS WARM FRONT...BUT BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE. 850 MB WINDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST AREA IS IN RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET...NOT VERY
FAVORABLE...BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE. GFS DOES GENERATE LARGE
QPF MAX BY EVENING IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN AREA THAT SHOWS
INCREASING CU. MAIN UPPER JET MAX WITH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS
AREAS TO OUR NORTH. SURFACE WINDS ALSO VEERING RATHER QUICKLY...SO
BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT NORTH...ALONG WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. AS SUCH WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS NCEP
HAS BACKED OFF ON 12Z QPF IN AMOUNTS...AND ALSO SHIFTED MAX PRECIP
A BIT FAR HER NORTH OF AREAS HARDEST HIT BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. WITH
DEW POINTS ON THE RISE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER CLOSING IN ON 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

NAM INCREASES CAPE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT
BY THEN 850 FLOW MORE WESTERLY.

AS BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH...FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER
AS FAR AS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BE CLOSER TO GFS MOS THAN ONE
WOULD THINK.

THEREFORE SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE SEEMS REASONABLE.

850 MB WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SHOULD BE ON NOSE OF JET...IN AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THEREFORE THINK HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS HIGHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
WISCONSIN. FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK THURSDAY. WIND PROFILES
SHOW GOOD VEERING WIND SHEAR...BUT CAPE ON NAM IS LESS DUE TO MODEL
GENERATING PRECIP.  AS SUCH CAPE MAY BE HIGHER.

MAIN MESSAGE IS THERE IS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RETURNING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS FRIDAY AS GFS BRINGS ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SAGGED
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THEN...BUT WAVE ALONG FRONT MAY REACH FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. 850 MB CONVERGENCE MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY...FINALLY
DRYING OUT THE AREA AS LESS HUMID AIR PUSHES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...ANIMATION OF SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STNRY FNT HAS
LIFTED NORTH BUT IS NOW BISECTING CWA WITH THE COOL SIDE IN THE
EAST. LIFR STRATUS DECK COMING IN OFF THE LAKE PER VSBY IMAGERY.
THIS WILL AFFECT KMKE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT LEAST. MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE ACRS THE CWA. BL LOOKS A LITTLE MORE MIXED IN THE WRN
CWA...BUT NOW CONCERNED ABOUT THE COOLER LAKE INFLUENCE HAVING A SAY
WITH LWR CIGS AND VSBYS DURG THE NIGHT. WILL HINT AT TSRA CHCS LATER
TNGT WITH POTENTIAL MCS AFFECTING SRN WI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HENTZ/COLLAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1225 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-221100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1225 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL AGGRAVATE ANY EXISTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
AROUND 1/4 MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH STORMS MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD
BE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-665-220945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1225 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
AROUND 1/4 MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1256 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LA VALLE                43.58N 90.13W
08/22/2007                   SAUK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN

&&

TZ