Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 222210
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
510 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIC079-089-222245-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-070822T2245Z/
OZAUKEE-MILWAUKEE-
510 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR MILWAUKEE AND SOUTHERN OZAUKEE COUNTIES...

AT 506 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAUKESHA TO MENOMONEE FALLS TO 
SAUKVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WEST ALLIS...WAUWATOSA...RIVER HILLS AND BROWN DEER BY 515 PM
  CDT...
  WHITEFISH BAY...WEST MILWAUKEE...SHOREWOOD AND HALES CORNERS BY 520
  PM CDT...
  MILWAUKEE MARINE(GLERL) AND FRANKLIN BY 525 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4342 8806 4307 8806 4285 8807 4283 8741
      4304 8736 4330 8736

$$

BORGHOFF

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 222219
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
519 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIC079-089-222245-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-070822T2245Z/
OZAUKEE-MILWAUKEE-
519 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR MILWAUKEE AND SOUTHERN OZAUKEE COUNTIES...

AT 516 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM A LINE EXTENDING FROM MUKWONAGO TO 
WAUWATOSA TO GRAFTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WEST MILWAUKEE...RIVER HILLS...HALES CORNERS AND GREENFIELD BY 525
  PM CDT...
  WHITEFISH BAY...FRANKLIN...MILWAUKEE AND SHOREWOOD BY 530 PM CDT...
  SAINT FRANCIS AND MILWAUKEE MARINE(GLERL) BY 535 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4342 8806 4307 8806 4285 8807 4283 8741
      4304 8736 4330 8736

$$

BORGHOFF

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 222231
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
531 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIC079-089-222245-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-070822T2245Z/
OZAUKEE-MILWAUKEE-
531 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR MILWAUKEE AND SOUTHERN OZAUKEE COUNTIES...

AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WIND LAKE TO GREENDALE TO 7 MILES EAST 
OF BAYSIDE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE 
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY 
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4342 8806 4307 8806 4285 8807 4283 8741
      4304 8736 4330 8736

$$

BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
200 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...CONCERN REMAINS WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTION UPSTREAM
ACROSS NRN/WRN IA FINGERING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WK SFC BNDRY EXTENDS FM NE WI INTO NE
IA...BUT THIS IS TOUGH TO DEFINE GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND DISTURBED
ATMOSPHERE FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
HANDLING THIS EARLY CONVECTION VERY DIFFERENTLY. NAM SHOWS IT
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z INTO 12Z. WHILE THE GFS
PUSHES IT MOSTLY ENE WITH TIME...RIGHT INTO THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. THE GFS SOLUTION IS ALREADY LOOKING LIKE A BETTER FIT WITH
REALITY. HPC QPF FIELDS ARE FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE GFS AS WELL.
SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN NW OF MADISON...AN AREA THAT CAN/T
AFFORD MUCH MORE RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE SE CWA IS SOAKED AND
IF THE COLD POOL WITH THAT CONVECTION ORGANIZES A BIT MORE...THAT
COLD POOL INFLUENCE AND THE MEAN STEERING CURRENTS WOULD TAKE THAT
CONVECTION ON A MORE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY...INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. RIVERS IN THE SE ARE VERY HIGH. MANY REPORTS
OF STANDING WATER. A SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. THUS
THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE WATCH.

SOME S/W ENERGY APPEARS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SW AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND THU...SOMEWHAT ENERGIZED BY A DIGGING TROUGH
NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. THE NAM LOOKS TO OVER DEVELOP
THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS...AGAIN...IS LOOKING BETTER. THE NAM HAS
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG H8 LLV JET IN EXCESS OF 60KTS ACROSS KS BY
12Z THU AND PUSHES IT OVER THE CWA BY OOZ. I PREFER THE MORE
RESERVED SOLUTION OF THE GFS...STILL 40KTS...BUT POINTING A BIT
MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THAN THE NAM. SINCE THE NAM HAS BEEN
STRONGLY BIASED WITH A TOO FAR NORTH SOUTION TO THE QPF AND
FORCING FIELDS THIS SUMMER...IT OFFERS SUPPORT FOR FOLLOWING THE
GFS. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK SINCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL
NORTH ACROSS WI. BUT THE LLV ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE. THE
LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT LOCATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD
SPELL MORE RAIN FOR THU INTO THU NGT.

THE FRONT MOVES LITTLE IN THE WAKE OF THAT LOW AS YET ANOTHER SFC
LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.  MORE RAIN.

SO OUR THREAT FOR MORE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS
IS VERY HIGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVES UP THE SFC FRONT IN A SW
FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDING OR RE-ISSUING THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES AS WE GAIN MORE CLARITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM.

A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH. COULD BE DRY INTO MONDAY. INTERESTING ANALYSIS OF THE GFS
FOR TUE SHOWS THAT IT/S PROGGED QPF FOR US ON TUE/TUE NIGHT MAY
BE THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DEAN. A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN THAT ONE
DOWN FOR SURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS NRN IA MCS AND HOW IT WILL
EVOLVE TO AFFECT SRN WI THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THE MCS ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TNGT AND LOWER CIGS A BIT.
NAM MOS HINTS AT MVFR CIGS IN MSN WHILE GUID UNANIMOUS WITH VFR CIGS
IN MKE. WILL NEVERTHELESS HINT AT LOWER CIGS WITH THE CONVECTION BUT
FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THINGS VFR. BUFKIT AND LLVL RH PROGS IMPLY
SUSTAINED LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MKE AND MSN WITH
THE PSBL BRIEF DROP DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION
LATER TNGT AND ERLY THU MRNG. WILL ALSO CARRY MVFR BR LATER TNGT AND
HAVE MVFR VSBYS WITH THE STORMS...THO IFR VSBYS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ056>060-062>072.

&&

DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
627 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-231000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
627 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL AGGRAVATE ANY EXISTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY REACH AROUND 95 DEGREES AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-231000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
627 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
425 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FLOOD            4 SW SUN PRAIRIE        43.14N 89.29W
08/22/2007                   DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCHES OF WATER ACROSS ROAD

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
445 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S LAKE MILLS          43.06N 88.91W
08/22/2007                   JEFFERSON          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING IN CITY OF LAKE MILLS

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
502 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND GST     OCONOMOWOC              43.10N 88.50W
08/22/2007  E65.00 MPH       WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            55 TO 65 MPH WIND GUST

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NNW HARTLAND          43.22N 88.41W
08/22/2007  M65.00 MPH       DODGE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED FROM HOME WEATHER STATION

&&

KRR