Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 220523
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1222 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIC049-111-220600-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0058.000000T0000Z-070822T0600Z/
SAUK-IOWA-
1222 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR IOWA AND SAUK COUNTIES...

AT 1215 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF RICHLAND CENTER TO 
10 MILES SOUTH OF RICHLAND CENTER TO 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
PLATTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LIME RIDGE AND COBB BY 1220 AM CDT...
  LA VALLE...HILL POINT AND SPRING GREEN BY 1225 AM CDT...
  MINERAL POINT ARPT(KMRJ)...LELAND...AND REEDSBURG BY 1230 AM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE 
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. 
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG 
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. 

IN ADDITION...THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL 
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR... 
CAUSING RAPID PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT 
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4320 9027 4317 9019 4356 9019 4357 9030
      4364 9032 4364 8979 4356 8972 4356 8962
      4338 8962 4337 8969 4328 8973 4321 8985
      4283 8985 4284 9040 4320 9042

$$

REM

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 220552
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1251 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

WIC049-111-220600-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0058.000000T0000Z-070822T0600Z/
SAUK-IOWA-
1251 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR IOWA AND SAUK COUNTIES...

AT 1243 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TREE DOWN IN LA 
VALLE AT 1245 AM CDT WITH A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FROM WISCONSIN DELLS TO PRAIRIE 
DU SAC TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DODGEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

IN ADDITION...THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL 
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR... 
CAUSING RAPID PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4320 9027 4317 9019 4356 9019 4357 9030
      4364 9032 4364 8979 4356 8972 4356 8962
      4338 8962 4337 8969 4328 8973 4321 8985
      4283 8985 4284 9040 4320 9042

$$

REM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION PORTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
410 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...
...WET PERIOD TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...

RIVERS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD
CAUSE SERIOUS PROBLEMS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHING NORTH
AS WARM FRONT...BUT BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE. 850 MB WINDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST AREA IS IN RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET...NOT VERY
FAVORABLE...BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE. GFS DOES GENERATE LARGE
QPF MAX BY EVENING IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IN AREA THAT SHOWS
INCREASING CU. MAIN UPPER JET MAX WITH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS
AREAS TO OUR NORTH. SURFACE WINDS ALSO VEERING RATHER QUICKLY...SO
BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT NORTH...ALONG WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. AS SUCH WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS NCEP
HAS BACKED OFF ON 12Z QPF IN AMOUNTS...AND ALSO SHIFTED MAX PRECIP
A BIT FAR HER NORTH OF AREAS HARDEST HIT BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. WITH
DEW POINTS ON THE RISE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER CLOSING IN ON 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

NAM INCREASES CAPE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT
BY THEN 850 FLOW MORE WESTERLY.

AS BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH...FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER
AS FAR AS TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BE CLOSER TO GFS MOS THAN ONE
WOULD THINK.

THEREFORE SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE SEEMS REASONABLE.

850 MB WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SHOULD BE ON NOSE OF JET...IN AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THEREFORE THINK HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS HIGHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
WISCONSIN. FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK THURSDAY. WIND PROFILES
SHOW GOOD VEERING WIND SHEAR...BUT CAPE ON NAM IS LESS DUE TO MODEL
GENERATING PRECIP.  AS SUCH CAPE MAY BE HIGHER.

MAIN MESSAGE IS THERE IS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RETURNING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS FRIDAY AS GFS BRINGS ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SAGGED
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THEN...BUT WAVE ALONG FRONT MAY REACH FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. 850 MB CONVERGENCE MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY...FINALLY
DRYING OUT THE AREA AS LESS HUMID AIR PUSHES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...ANIMATION OF SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STNRY FNT HAS
LIFTED NORTH BUT IS NOW BISECTING CWA WITH THE COOL SIDE IN THE
EAST. LIFR STRATUS DECK COMING IN OFF THE LAKE PER VSBY IMAGERY.
THIS WILL AFFECT KMKE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT LEAST. MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE ACRS THE CWA. BL LOOKS A LITTLE MORE MIXED IN THE WRN
CWA...BUT NOW CONCERNED ABOUT THE COOLER LAKE INFLUENCE HAVING A SAY
WITH LWR CIGS AND VSBYS DURG THE NIGHT. WILL HINT AT TSRA CHCS LATER
TNGT WITH POTENTIAL MCS AFFECTING SRN WI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HENTZ/COLLAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
632 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-221100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
632 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LONE ROCK TO FOND DU
LAC LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH STORMS MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD
BE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-665-220945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
632 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

REM

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