Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.SHORT TERM...IMPRESSIVE LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND
BASED ON CURRENT INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE CWFA TO THE SOUTH. OTHER ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS ABLE TO CLEAR.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO LOWER THE DEWPOINTS AND CHANGE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING
BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY AIR MASS DROPPING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LONG TERM. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION RETURNS SUNDAY. MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS INTO SATURDAY EVENING SRN ZONES AS THE SEA BREEZE WORKS
ITS WAY INLAND. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN LIGHT FLOW UNDER REMNANTS OF WASHED OUT UPPER RIDGE.

NO BIG CHANGES MADE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TWEAKED HIGHS ONE OR
TWO DEGREES WARMER LATER IN THE PERIOD...MORE IN LINE WITH WARMER
MOS HIGHS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN A DRY EARLY SUMMER ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS STILL TO AFFECT KHBG THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE STORMS. EXPECT SOME FOG
FORMATION ALTER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE IF HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  92  64  94 /  20   4   3   4
MERIDIAN      68  92  59  94 /  40   4   6   3
VICKSBURG     70  93  64  95 /  16   4   3   5
HATTIESBURG   70  94  63  94 /  40   5   1   4
NATCHEZ       71  91  63  93 /  21   5   2   5
GREENVILLE    70  92  65  94 /  15   4   1   4
GREENWOOD     70  93  62  93 /  15   4   1   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

02/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
200930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1155 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
WITH A FEW SPOTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME OF THESE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND GRENADA
COUNTY WHERE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 8 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY JUNE 25TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SCW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARTHAGE                32.74N 89.53W
06/19/2007                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 ROADS
            WITH TREES DOWN. UTILITY POLE REPORTED DOWN SOUTH OF
            CARTHAGE ON HWY 35 SOUTH.

&&

ECT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BYRAM                   32.18N 90.24W
06/19/2007                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMWEROUS TREES DOWN AND ROADS BLOCKED DUE TO DOWNED
            TREES.

&&

ECT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               33.12N 90.05W
06/19/2007                   HOLMES             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 17 JUST SOUTH OF LEXINGTON. ONE
            TREE DOWN ON A POWERLINE WHICH CAUSED THE POWERLINE TO
            BURN IN TWO ON HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN TCHULA AND LEXINGTON. A
            COUPLE OF TREES CROSSING VICTOR ROGERS ROAD IN COXBURY
            AREA. ONE TREE DOWN ON THORTON POLLARSVILLE ROAD.

1246 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOODMAN                 32.97N 89.91W
06/19/2007                   HOLMES             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE FELL ON MAY STREET ONTO A POWERLINE.

&&

ECT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
06/19/2007                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ACROSS CROSBY STREET AND STEEL STREET
            IN GRENADA. TREE FELL INTO A HOUSE ON MIDDLE ROAD.

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PELAHATCHIE             32.32N 89.80W
06/19/2007                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 80.

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON                 32.32N 90.21W
06/19/2007                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DOZENS OF TREES BLOWN DOWN AROUND JACKSON AND BYRAM.

&&

ECT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION                   32.57N 89.12W
06/19/2007                   NEWTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN WEST OF UNION BLOCKING HIGHWAY 492.

&&

ECT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISON                 32.45N 90.11W
06/19/2007                   MADISON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN AS WELL AS POWER OUTAGES IN
            MADISON, CAMDEN, SHARON AND FLORA.

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E UNION               31.88N 90.03W
06/19/2007                   SIMPSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN 3 MILES EAST OF UNION ON HIGHWAY 494.

&&

JFAIRLY