Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417

June 19, 20076 counties in Arkansas; 9 parishes in Louisiana; 46 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 19, 2007, 10:39 AM CDT for 6 counties in Arkansas; 9 parishes in Louisiana; 46 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 19, 2007, 10:39 AM CDT (15:39 UTC)
Expired: Jun 19, 2007, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 61 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Greene County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Perry County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

28 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 19, 11:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Carroll, Grenada	60 min
Jun 19, 11:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Grenada	118 min
Jun 19, 11:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Leflore	34 min
Jun 19, 12:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Holmes	47 min
Jun 19, 12:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Attala, Choctaw, Montgomery	63 min
Jun 19, 12:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Madison, Yazoo	53 min
Jun 19, 12:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Humphreys	18 min
Jun 19, 1:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Leake	45 min
Jun 19, 1:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Holmes	12 min
Jun 19, 1:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Winston	63 min
Jun 19, 1:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Neshoba	57 min
Jun 19, 1:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Hinds, Madison, Rankin	71 min
Jun 19, 1:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Scott	55 min
Jun 19, 1:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Newton	63 min
Jun 19, 2:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Simpson, Smith	60 min
Jun 19, 2:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Copiah	39 min
Jun 19, 2:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jasper	39 min
Jun 19, 2:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lauderdale	56 min
Jun 19, 2:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Warren	53 min
Jun 19, 2:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Copiah, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln	72 min
Jun 19, 2:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jones	43 min
Jun 19, 2:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Covington	47 min
Jun 19, 3:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Franklin	58 min
Jun 19, 3:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Tensas	56 min
Jun 19, 3:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Forrest	53 min
Jun 19, 3:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Concordia	51 min
Jun 19, 3:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lamar, Marion	63 min
Jun 19, 3:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MOB	Greene, Perry	55 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 102 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1188 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 638 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 19, 10:17 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Lee and 4 more	28 min
Jun 19, 12:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Lincoln	65 min
Jun 19, 3:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashley, Chicot	53 min
Jun 19, 3:41 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 19 more	64 min
Jun 19, 3:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Jefferson and 16 more	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Mississippi, 2007 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Louisiana, 2007 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.