Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1031 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWFA. THIS RAINFALL IS VERY
BENEFICIAL TO THIS AREA WHICH IS IN A SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION. DUE
TO THE TRAINING OF SOME CELLS AND ESTIMATED STORM TOTALS APPROACHING
5 INCHES IN GRENADA COUNTY...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER FEATURE WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL LIFT SLOWLY
EAST BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BRING
BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE REST OF THE CWFA. A POCKET OF WINDS FROM 850
TO 500 MB SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE WIND PROBS AND BEEFED UP
THE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
GOING WITH NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS.

SPC WILL BE ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF CWFA
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING KMEI AND KGTR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOW CEILINGS IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS AFFECT THE SITES.

&&

SW

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
MORNING...RADAR SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST INTO AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  I EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXISTING THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE BEFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS PRESENCE
FELT OVER THE AREA...COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY... PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO OVER THE
AREA...IN ADDITION TO DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WEVE SEEN IN A WHILE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND EVEN LINGERING INTO
TONIGHT...COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS.  ILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

I DID UP RAIN CHANCES JUST A TAD ACROSS THE DELTA TONIGHT JUST TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT AREA IN THE EVENT SOME
ACTIVITY IS STILL ON GOING DURING THE EARLY EVENING.  RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD HOWEVER BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODEL TENDENCY FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO
BE DRIVEN OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST RUNS AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA NOW. SHARPLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SFC
DEWPOINT TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR SURFACE HUMIDITY TO CREEP UPWARD IN THE
MODIFYING AIRMASS WHILE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE READINGS
TYPICAL OF LATE JUNE. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES...AND CONVECTION WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING OBSTACLES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AT ALL TAF
SITES.  JUST WITH THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY...AND COULD
LOCALLY BECOME IFR ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES IF CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED.  CONVECTION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.  HOWEVER...MVFR...TO LOCALLY IFR...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF FOG
THAT COULD DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE WET
SOIL LEFT OVER FROM TUESDAYS CONVECTION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  70  94  64 /  95  20   4   3
MERIDIAN      87  68  93  59 / 100  40   4   6
VICKSBURG     88  70  94  64 /  83  16   4   3
HATTIESBURG   88  71  95  63 /  82  40   5   1
NATCHEZ       88  70  91  63 /  74  21   5   2
GREENVILLE    87  68  92  65 /  79  15   4   1
GREENWOOD     86  68  93  62 /  91  15   4   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
200930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1155 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
WITH A FEW SPOTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME OF THESE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND GRENADA
COUNTY WHERE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 8 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY JUNE 25TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SCW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
06/19/2007                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER IN HOUSES AND APARTMENTS IN THE CITY OF GRENADA.
            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED. HIGHWAY 51 NORTH HAS 3 TO 4 FEET
            OF WATER.

&&

JCULIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

MSZ018-019-025-191705-
BOLIVAR MS-SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-
1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER DREW AT 1133 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN BOLIVAR...LEFLORE AND SUNFLOWER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF CLEVELAND...DREW...PARCHMAN...RULEVILLE AND SHELBY...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE PROVIDENCE         32.81N 91.18W
06/19/2007                   EAST CARROLL       LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TREE DAMAGE. PATH OF THE STORM WAS
            FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE TO THE
            NORTHWEST. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0103 AM     HAIL             LAKE PROVIDENCE         32.81N 91.18W
06/19/2007  E0.75 INCH       EAST CARROLL       LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY HAIL REPORTED IN LAKE PROVIDENCE

0105 AM     LIGHTNING        LAKE PROVIDENCE         32.81N 91.18W
06/19/2007                   EAST CARROLL       LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FOUR HOUSES ON FIRE DUE TO LIGHTNING

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREENWOOD               33.52N 90.19W
06/19/2007  E60.00 MPH       LEFLORE            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH WIND REPORTED. LIMBS ALSO DOWN.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COILA                   33.40N 89.97W
06/19/2007                   CARROLL            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH NEAR COUNTY ROAD 23.

1225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SSE GREENWOOD         33.41N 90.14W
06/19/2007                   CARROLL            MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD 23 NEAR THE GRAVEL HILL
            COMMUNITY.

&&

JCULIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

MSZ044-049-050-191840-
RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-LEAKE MS-
1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...SIGNIFICANT ALERT FOR RANKIN...LEAKE...AND SCOTT COUNTIES...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WAS LOCATED FROM
18 MILES NORTH OF RENFROE TO 46 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOSHEN SPRINGS AT
1257 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR EACH COUNTY AS THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
GET CLOSER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND A QUICK INCH
OR MORE IN LESS THAN AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN LEAKE...RANKIN AND SCOTT COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
CARTHAGE...EDINBURG...FLOWOOD...HARPERVILLE AND MORTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

BANNAN