Severe Thunderstorm Warning 266, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
MORNING...RADAR SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST INTO AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  I EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXISTING THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE BEFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS PRESENCE
FELT OVER THE AREA...COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY... PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO OVER THE
AREA...IN ADDITION TO DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WEVE SEEN IN A WHILE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND EVEN LINGERING INTO
TONIGHT...COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS.  ILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

I DID UP RAIN CHANCES JUST A TAD ACROSS THE DELTA TONIGHT JUST TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT AREA IN THE EVENT SOME
ACTIVITY IS STILL ON GOING DURING THE EARLY EVENING.  RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD HOWEVER BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODEL TENDENCY FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO
BE DRIVEN OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST RUNS AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA NOW. SHARPLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SFC
DEWPOINT TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR SURFACE HUMIDITY TO CREEP UPWARD IN THE
MODIFYING AIRMASS WHILE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE READINGS
TYPICAL OF LATE JUNE. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES...AND CONVECTION WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING OBSTACLES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AT ALL TAF
SITES.  JUST WITH THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY...AND COULD
LOCALLY BECOME IFR ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES IF CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED.  CONVECTION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.  HOWEVER...MVFR...TO LOCALLY IFR...
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF FOG
THAT COULD DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE WET
SOIL LEFT OVER FROM TUESDAYS CONVECTION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  70  94  64 /  95  20   4   3
MERIDIAN      87  68  93  59 / 100  40   4   6
VICKSBURG     88  70  94  64 /  83  16   4   3
HATTIESBURG   88  71  95  63 /  82  40   5   1
NATCHEZ       88  70  91  63 /  74  21   5   2
GREENVILLE    87  68  92  65 /  79  15   4   1
GREENWOOD     86  68  93  62 /  91  15   4   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
200930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
900 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE BEST COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE IN EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

SOME OF THESE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MERIDIAN TO GRENADA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY JUNE 25TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SCW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
914 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

MSZ052-191445-
LAUDERDALE MS-
914 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER COLLINSVILLE AT 914 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN LAUDERDALE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
LAUDERDALE...MERIDIAN NAVAL AIR STATION AND MERIDIAN...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SE CROSSETT           33.05N 91.87W
06/18/2007                   ASHLEY             AR   UTILITY COMPANY

            A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE S
            PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
927 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S LAKE PROVIDENCE     32.75N 91.18W
06/19/2007                   EAST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN LAKE PROVIDENCE AND
            TRANSYLVANIA.

0100 AM     HAIL             4 S LAKE PROVIDENCE     32.75N 91.18W
06/19/2007  E0.75 INCH       EAST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
939 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

MSZ051-052-191510-
NEWTON MS-LAUDERDALE MS-
939 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF MEEHAN AT 939 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWEST LAUDERDALE AND SOUTHEAST NEWTON
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF MERIDIAN...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 W FRENCH CAMP         33.29N 89.54W
06/19/2007                   ATTALA             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SMALL TREE DOWN OVER A BACK ROAD BETWEEN ATTALA AND
            CHOCTAW COUNTIES.

&&

JCULIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

MSZ058-191530-
CLARKE MS-
958 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF STONEWALL AT 958 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CLARKE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF QUITMAN...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME