Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
623 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EACH TAF SITE AT VARIOUS
TIMES DURING THE DAY AND EVENING BEFORE THEY MOVE OFF INTO
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BEHIND
THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. AT
THIS TIME DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO COVERAGE AND DURATION.

SCHRECK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS KANSAS THIS
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THIS PM. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AM IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RESULTING FROM STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. BY LATE THIS PM...DRYLINE SHOULD
EXTEND SWD FROM TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN OK AS THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA WHILE BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL KEEP
CAPES MARGINAL (1000 J/KG) AND LCL HEIGHTS VERY LOW ACROSS
S-CNTRL/SERN KS THIS PM/EVE. PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
SHOULD ALLOW SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS PM/EVE
FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO WESTERN OK. STRONGEST WIND FIELDS AND LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK PROGGED OVER SERN KS
LATE THIS PM/EVE. CONCUR WITH SPC DAY 1 MODERATE RISK FOR SERN KS
AND WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES THERE IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
SOUTH OF THE KS BORDER IN OK...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
SUPERCELLS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD OUT OF OKLAHOMA PER BUNKERS
LEFT/RIGHT MOVING VECTORS. NO GUARANTEE TORNADIC STORMS WILL
MATERIALIZE OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
CERTAINLY EXISTS. LATER TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

THURSDAY:
AS THE DEPARTING BUT STRENGTHENING SYSTEM FORMS INTO AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ALL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND VORT LOBE ENERGY PINWHEELING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND COULD TAKE THE
EDGE OFF MOMENTUM TRANSFER ON THE WINDS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS FEASIBLE
THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN CENTRAL AND PERHAPS S-CNTRL KS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PERIOD. FRI-SAT BOTH LOOK
LIKE NICE DAYS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER KANSAS LEADING TO
GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH NEXT
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IN VIEW OF
THE LARGE SPREAD ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT SHOWING MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
APPEARS REASONABLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NOW.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  53  65  45 /  80  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      72  52  64  45 /  80  30  30  10
NEWTON          70  53  64  45 /  80  40  30  10
ELDORADO        71  55  65  45 /  90  50  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  55  68  45 /  90  30  20  10
RUSSELL         71  49  61  42 /  70  40  30  10
GREAT BEND      71  50  63  43 /  70  30  30  10
SALINA          70  52  60  44 /  80  60  30  10
MCPHERSON       71  52  63  44 /  80  40  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  57  68  46 / 100  70  20  10
CHANUTE         70  57  65  46 / 100  80  20  10
IOLA            70  57  65  47 / 100  80  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  57  67  46 / 100  70  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
501 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-181115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
501 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
KANSAS REGION. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR A DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO. THE
HIGHEST THREAT AREA FOR TORNADOES IS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH
MAY AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ069-094-098-171700-
BUTLER-CHAUTAUQUA-ELK-
1136 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...CHAUTAUQUA AND ELK COUNTIES...

AT 1133 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LATHAM TO CEDAR
VALE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ098-171730-
CHAUTAUQUA-
1157 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

AT 1152 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GRENOLA TO ELGIN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 PM     HAIL             5 W SEDAN               37.13N 96.28W
10/17/2007  E0.50 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ELDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1211 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ098-099-171745-
CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-
1211 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 1207 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ELK
FALLS TO SEDAN TO PERU...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1214 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHAUTAUQUA              37.02N 96.18W
10/17/2007  E60 MPH          CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ELDER