Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE WINDS FOR THURSDAY.

TONIGHT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE DRYLINE WHERE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY...AS FULL SUNSHINE HAS
RECHARGED THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA. AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. THE STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY FROM THE DRYLINE WILL
RACE EASTWARD AND AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD WEAKEN ONCE IT REACHES EASTERN KANSAS
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WORKED OVER REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK...HOWEVER A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN MODEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND 0-3KM CAPE VALUES.

THU-SAT
COLDER AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AIDING IN THE COOLING
EFFECTS. RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION
NEAR 700MB TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH LOOKS TO SPARK OFF SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THE SETUP
FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER FAVORED DEEP MIXING WILL BE PREDICATED ON
CLOUDINESS/PRECIP. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS JUNCTURE...AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE FOR ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES. OTHERWISE...A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN STORE ACROSS KANSAS FOR FRI/SAT. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER STOUT AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING WAVE.

EXTENDED: SUN-WED
TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME WOULD BE SOMETIME ON SUNDAY AT THIS JUNCTURE. PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE PRECIP COULD BE REMOVED FOR MONDAY IF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEEDS UP SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JAKUB

.AVIATION...
THREAT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SLN/ICT/CNU....WITH DRYLINE
ENDING THUNDERSTORM THREAT EARLY AT HUT/RSL AFTER 6PM. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DRYSLOT
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AT RSL/SLN AND INTO HUT/ICT AFTER
DAYBREAK. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN
DYNAMICS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  65  45  72 /  40  30  10   0
HUTCHINSON      52  62  44  73 /  30  40  10   0
NEWTON          53  62  45  72 /  50  40  10   0
ELDORADO        55  64  46  71 /  50  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  67  46  73 /  30  20  10   0
RUSSELL         49  62  42  74 /  30  40  10   0
GREAT BEND      50  63  42  74 /  20  40  10   0
SALINA          52  60  44  73 /  50  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       52  61  44  73 /  40  40  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     57  70  48  71 /  70  20  10   0
CHANUTE         57  67  47  69 /  80  20  10   0
IOLA            57  66  47  69 /  80  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  69  48  70 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050-051-067-082.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-182200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
350 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A DRYLINE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR
TORNADOES WOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF A ELLSWORTH TO
HUTCHINSON...TO WELLINGTON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH
MAY AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE WIND ADVISORY FOR
ADDITONAL DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC/CJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
443 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ083-172215-
SEDGWICK-
443 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SEDGWICK COUNTY...

AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HARPER TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARGONIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN SEDGWICK COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
457 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W SOUTH HAVEN         37.04N 97.48W
10/17/2007  E60 MPH          SUMNER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ELDER

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