Flash Flood Warning 189, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
511 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMAINS WELL NORTH OF METROPLEX. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON RE-DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN THE METROPLEX...ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY LAYING AROUND. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A
PROB30 AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR
BY 18Z AND DISSIPATING BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 12-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. WACO WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
TAF BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.  /13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007/

UPDATE...
UPDATING TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 415 TO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING FROM DFW METROPLEX NORTH THROUGH
DENTON...COOKE... AND GRAYSON COUNTIES. WE WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH NOON FOR DENTON-COOKE COUNTIES EAST FOR CURRENT
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERED EXTENDING WATCH FURTHER SOUTH
GIVEN A FEW CELLS ON RADAR WEST OF PALESTINE...BUT BELIEVE THESE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. HIGHEST POPS TODAY NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEAST
WHERE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT...HOWEVER WILL
KEEP AT LEAST 20 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A
WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AFTER TODAY WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND EAST DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...WITH STORMS
MOVING SOUTH OF RED RIVER DURING AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME HOURS.
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO DROP INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MID WEEK...AND GIVEN
MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN GRIDDED/TEXT FORECASTS.
GIVEN ONGOING FLOOD/SEVERE EVENT...HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECASTS LATER THIS WEEK. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED CLOSELY. 07/BB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  74  92  75  89 /  40  20  20  20  10
WACO, TX              90  74  92  74  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
PARIS, TX             85  71  91  73  89 /  50  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            90  73  92  72  90 /  40  20  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          89  73  92  71  90 /  50  20  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            90  76  93  76  90 /  40  20  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           89  74  93  73  90 /  50  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  75  91  74  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            89  74  91  74  89 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ092>095-103>107.

&&

13/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
353 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO FLOWER MOUND...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER
SATURATED SOILS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THIS MAGNITUDE OF FLASH
FLOODING OVER URBAN AREAS CAN QUICKLY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING
SITUATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
741 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

TXZ091-181315-
MONTAGUE TX-
741 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 741 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWIE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE AND STONEBURG.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3379 9798 3347 9797 3340 9771 3359 9758

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
757 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

TXZ094-181330-
FANNIN TX-
757 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN FANNIN COUNTY

AT 757 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES EAST OF SHERMAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BAILEY...BONHAM...DODD
CITY...ECTOR...HONEY GROVE AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FANNIN COUNTY THROUGH
930 AM.

LAT...LON 3367 9635 3338 9637 3342 9587 3360 9588

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 AM     HAIL             FORT WORTH              32.75N  97.34W
06/18/2007  E0.88 INCH       TARRANT            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL HAIL IN FAR NORTH FORT WORTH (2 MILES ESE OF
            ALLIANCE AIRPORT)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
834 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

TXZ094-181400-
FANNIN TX-
834 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN FANNIN COUNTY

AT 834 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BONHAM...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BAILEY AND LEONARD.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3353 9637 3334 9637 3337 9614 3352 9609

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
847 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GAINESVILLE             33.64N  97.15W
06/18/2007                   COOKE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS HIGH WATER RESCUES...MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED BY
            FLOODWATERS...PEOPLE ON ROOFS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
848 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SHERMAN                 33.62N  96.61W
06/18/2007                   GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED...HIGH WATER RESCUES REPORTED
            ACROSS COUNTY