Flash Flood Warning 181, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
846 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.UPDATE...
846 PM
REMOVING THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR THIS EVENING AND LOWERING POPS
THROUGH 1 AM. ONCE AGAIN NOCTURNAL STORMS SHOULD REGENERATE...SO
HAVE CHANCE THROUGH LIKELY IN EARLY MORNING. FLOOD THREAT REMAINS
SINCE GROUND IS SO SATURATED. 84

&&

.DISCUSSION...
235 PM
SLOW-MOVING...HYBRID MID LVL LOW PUSHING VERNON/WICHITA FALLS AREA...
WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO THE NE OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH 12-18Z MONDAY
(MONDAY MORNING). LEFT EXIT REGION OF WEAK SUB-TROPICAL 40-60KT
UPPER JET AND 30-40KT LLJ WILL COINCIDE OVER AREAS GENERALLY E/SE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND FOCUS ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATER TONIGHT
ONCE AGAIN OVER E/NE PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. FFA (FLASH FLOOD
WATCH) EXTENSION FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH DAYBREAK MON
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-35. LOOK FOR THIS PRODUCT SOMETIME
BETWEEN 3-4 PM...BUT GENERAL OUTLINE CAN BE NOTED ON ADVISORY LINE
BELOW THE PRELIM NUMBERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY OVER THE NE 1/2 OF NORTH TEXAS...BEFORE SYSTEM DEPARTS
FAR ENOUGH AWAY MON NIGHT/TUES TO ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA AND DIMINISH POPS. THROUGH THIS TIME...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/RAIN/AND WET
GROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...WITH HEATING BEING LOST ON ENERGY
USED FOR EVAPORATION. WILL STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS/MENMOS
NUMBERS THROUGH MID WEEK

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SOME WEAKNESS OVER E/SE COUNTIES (SE
OF D/FW METRO) FOR SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER S TX FRI INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP BEST RAIN
CHANCES DOWN THAT WAY...WHICH IS A GOOD THING SINCE WE DONT NEED
MORE RAIN ATTM. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN
SRN COUNTIES WITH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE GAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  75  89  75 /  60  40  10  20  10
WACO, TX              71  86  74  90  71 /  50  30  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             70  82  71  89  70 /  70  50  30  30  20
DENTON, TX            71  86  72  90  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  72  89  70 /  70  50  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            71  86  75  90  76 /  60  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           70  84  73  89  73 /  70  50  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  85  74  89  72 /  60  40  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  87  74  91  72 /  40  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ116-117-130>132-141>143-156>158-160-162-174-175.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ092-093-103-104 AND
TXZ094-095-105>107-118>123-133>135-144>148-159-161. GENERALLY
ALONG/NE OF A GAINESVILLE...D/FW...WACO...PALESTINE LINE.

&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF A
MUENSTER...WALNUT SPRINGS...MCGREGOR LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE TIME PERIOD COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE THREAT
OF FLOODING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
654 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          1 SW COPPERAS COVE      31.11N  97.91W
06/17/2007                   CORYELL            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MODULAR HOMES DAMAGED SOUTHWEST EDGE OF TOWN...TIME
            ESTIMATED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

TXZ130-141-180045-
ERATH TX-COMANCHE TX-
706 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY
  SOUTHERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR CHALK MOUNTAIN...TO SOUTH OF
DUBLIN...TO WEST OF PROCTOR. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DUBLIN.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3197 9858 3185 9849 3210 9790 3226 9799

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
713 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

TXZ156-180045-
LAMPASAS TX-
713 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL LAMPASAS COUNTY

AT 713 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES NORTH OF LAMPASAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TOUCH DOWN...MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF A FUNNEL IS SEEN. PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3138 9840 3129 9829 3134 9811 3146 9817
      3142 9826 3145 9829

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
838 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          1 SW COPPERAS COVE      31.11N  97.91W
06/17/2007                   CORYELL            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** 1 INJ *** 12 MODULAR HOMES DAMAGED ON THE SOUTHWEST
            EDGE OF TOWN. 1 MINOR INJURY...TIME ESTIMATED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

TXZ118-180515-
TARRANT TX-
1139 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  TARRANT COUNTY

AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARLINGTON TO 4 MILES
EAST OF BENBROOK...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ARLINGTON...BEDFORD...
BENBROOK...BLUE MOUND...COLLEYVILLE...DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS...EAGLE
MOUNTAIN...EULESS...FOREST HILL...FORT WORTH...GRAPEVINE...HALTOM
CITY...HASLET...HURST...KELLER...LAKE WORTH...LAKESIDE...NORTH
RICHLAND HILLS...PANTEGO...PECAN ACRES...PELICAN BAY...RICHLAND
HILLS...RIVER OAKS...SAGINAW...SANSOM PARK...SOUTHLAKE...WATAUGA...
WESTWORTH AND WHITE SETTLEMENT.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN RAPID FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH
AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3264 9702 3266 9754 3300 9754 3299 9703