Flash Flood Warning 186, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
846 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.UPDATE...
846 PM
REMOVING THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR THIS EVENING AND LOWERING POPS
THROUGH 1 AM. ONCE AGAIN NOCTURNAL STORMS SHOULD REGENERATE...SO
HAVE CHANCE THROUGH LIKELY IN EARLY MORNING. FLOOD THREAT REMAINS
SINCE GROUND IS SO SATURATED. 84

&&

.DISCUSSION...
235 PM
SLOW-MOVING...HYBRID MID LVL LOW PUSHING VERNON/WICHITA FALLS AREA...
WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO THE NE OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH 12-18Z MONDAY
(MONDAY MORNING). LEFT EXIT REGION OF WEAK SUB-TROPICAL 40-60KT
UPPER JET AND 30-40KT LLJ WILL COINCIDE OVER AREAS GENERALLY E/SE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND FOCUS ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATER TONIGHT
ONCE AGAIN OVER E/NE PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. FFA (FLASH FLOOD
WATCH) EXTENSION FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH DAYBREAK MON
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-35. LOOK FOR THIS PRODUCT SOMETIME
BETWEEN 3-4 PM...BUT GENERAL OUTLINE CAN BE NOTED ON ADVISORY LINE
BELOW THE PRELIM NUMBERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY OVER THE NE 1/2 OF NORTH TEXAS...BEFORE SYSTEM DEPARTS
FAR ENOUGH AWAY MON NIGHT/TUES TO ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA AND DIMINISH POPS. THROUGH THIS TIME...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/RAIN/AND WET
GROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...WITH HEATING BEING LOST ON ENERGY
USED FOR EVAPORATION. WILL STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS/MENMOS
NUMBERS THROUGH MID WEEK

UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SOME WEAKNESS OVER E/SE COUNTIES (SE
OF D/FW METRO) FOR SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER S TX FRI INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP BEST RAIN
CHANCES DOWN THAT WAY...WHICH IS A GOOD THING SINCE WE DONT NEED
MORE RAIN ATTM. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN
SRN COUNTIES WITH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE GAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  75  89  75 /  60  40  10  20  10
WACO, TX              71  86  74  90  71 /  50  30  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             70  82  71  89  70 /  70  50  30  30  20
DENTON, TX            71  86  72  90  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  72  89  70 /  70  50  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            71  86  75  90  76 /  60  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           70  84  73  89  73 /  70  50  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  85  74  89  72 /  60  40  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  87  74  91  72 /  40  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ116-117-130>132-141>143-156>158-160-162-174-175.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ092-093-103-104 AND
TXZ094-095-105>107-118>123-133>135-144>148-159-161. GENERALLY
ALONG/NE OF A GAINESVILLE...D/FW...WACO...PALESTINE LINE.

&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF A
MUENSTER...WALNUT SPRINGS...MCGREGOR LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE TIME PERIOD COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE THREAT
OF FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
158 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TROPHY CLUB             33.00N  97.19W
06/18/2007                   DENTON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED SOUTHERN COUNTY BY DENTON
            SPOTTER NETWORK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
212 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TROPHY CLUB             33.00N  97.19W
06/18/2007                   DENTON             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGH WATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS TROPHY CLUB.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
223 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KELLER                  32.93N  97.23W
06/18/2007                   TARRANT            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED 4.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN KELLER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
            AND 145 AM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
247 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 AM     TSTM WND GST     DENTON                  33.21N  97.13W
06/18/2007  E79 MPH          DENTON             TX   ASOS

            KDTO ASOS REPORTS G68 KT AT 0738Z

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