Flash Flood Warning 188, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
511 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMAINS WELL NORTH OF METROPLEX. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON RE-DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN THE METROPLEX...ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY LAYING AROUND. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A
PROB30 AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR
BY 18Z AND DISSIPATING BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 12-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. WACO WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
TAF BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.  /13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007/

UPDATE...
UPDATING TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 415 TO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING FROM DFW METROPLEX NORTH THROUGH
DENTON...COOKE... AND GRAYSON COUNTIES. WE WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH NOON FOR DENTON-COOKE COUNTIES EAST FOR CURRENT
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERED EXTENDING WATCH FURTHER SOUTH
GIVEN A FEW CELLS ON RADAR WEST OF PALESTINE...BUT BELIEVE THESE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. HIGHEST POPS TODAY NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEAST
WHERE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT...HOWEVER WILL
KEEP AT LEAST 20 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A
WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AFTER TODAY WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND EAST DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...WITH STORMS
MOVING SOUTH OF RED RIVER DURING AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME HOURS.
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO DROP INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MID WEEK...AND GIVEN
MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN GRIDDED/TEXT FORECASTS.
GIVEN ONGOING FLOOD/SEVERE EVENT...HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECASTS LATER THIS WEEK. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED CLOSELY. 07/BB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  74  92  75  89 /  40  20  20  20  10
WACO, TX              90  74  92  74  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
PARIS, TX             85  71  91  73  89 /  50  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            90  73  92  72  90 /  40  20  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          89  73  92  71  90 /  50  20  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            90  76  93  76  90 /  40  20  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           89  74  93  73  90 /  50  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  75  91  74  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            89  74  91  74  89 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ092>095-103>107.

&&

13/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
353 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO FLOWER MOUND...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER
SATURATED SOILS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THIS MAGNITUDE OF FLASH
FLOODING OVER URBAN AREAS CAN QUICKLY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING
SITUATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

13

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
741 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

TXZ091-181315-
MONTAGUE TX-
741 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 741 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWIE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE AND STONEBURG.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3379 9798 3347 9797 3340 9771 3359 9758