Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
302 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT WELL UNDER WAY OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE UPPER
LOW IS ROTATING EASTWARD AT 20 KTS. A DRY SLOT IS PUNCHING ITS WAY
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
CONVECTION HAS CHANGED APPEARANCE FROM BROAD TRAINING ECHOES TO A
SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIPHERAL SHOWERS MERGING WITH
THE LINE. SOME BOWING IS SEEN ON RADAR UNDER THE 300MB JET. THE
WHOLE AREA WILL TRANSLATE EAST TODAY, MOVING INTO THE SOUPY
AIRMASS WITH P.W.S IN THE 1.5 RANGE. EXPECTING OVERALL RAINFALL
TO RUN NO LESS THAN 3/4 INCH AND AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN SECTIONS. ON THAT BASIS, I HAVE PLACED ALL OF THE CWA
UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ONCE THIS LOW EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY, A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND KEEPS THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGH P.W.S REMAIN IN TACT AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME
REPOSITIONS ITSELF BACK THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS MAY RETURN BY THEN. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
FRIDAY, LEAVING US IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RAIN DEPENDENT. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  64  81  65  80 /  90  90  40  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  64  81  61  79 /  90  90  40  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  59  86  66  82 / 100  20  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  63  83  66  79 /  90  80  20  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

06/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-271100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
315 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND WILL CAUSE FLOODING
AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.  IN ADDITION...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST TONIGHT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP...
AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
105 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

TXZ183-260815-
VAL VERDE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...DEL RIO
105 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO TX HAS ISSUED A
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PECOS RIVER AT PANDALE CROSSING FROM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT 12 AM MONDAY THE STAGE
WAS 1.3 FEET OR 0.4 METERS. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. THE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO RISE TO 5.7 FEET OR 1.7 METERS BY MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL. FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET OR 1.5 METERS.
BANKFULL STAGE IS 5.0 FEET OR 1.5 METERS. AT 5.0 FEET, MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING MAKES LOW WATER CROSSINGS AT PANDALE ON THE PECOS
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CHANGE THESE RIVER FORECAST LEVELS.